A key super middleweight showdown between undefeated contenders Christian Mbilli and Lester Martinez could earn a winner on the shortlist to challenge for a title as these two face off on the undercard of Saul Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford.
Mbilli is a -175 favorite over the +140 underdog Martinez.
For more boxing analysis, check out my Alvarez vs. Crawford predictions!
Christian Mbilli vs Lester Martinez prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Mbilli moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Over 8.5 Rounds (-165 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Christian Mbilli and Lester Martinez could very well steal the show, as both men are violent, high-action fighters with comparable skill levels.
Mbilli has recently been floated as a possible opponent for Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, thanks to his fast hands and highlight-reel stoppages. While his biggest wins have come against smaller, older opponents, the manner in which he’s dominated suggests he’s ready for top-tier opposition.
Martinez isn’t far behind and has quickly entered the conversation as an emerging force in the division.
A decorated amateur with real punching power, he’s gained valuable experience as Terence Crawford’s sparring partner in preparation for Alvarez. Patient and precise, Martinez relies on single, concussive shots that can change a fight instantly, making him one of the division’s more intriguing wild cards.
This is a close matchup stylistically. Mbilli fights at a high pace and has excellent conditioning, carrying power into the late rounds. Martinez, meanwhile, is the sharper counterpuncher and arguably has the better one-punch knockout power.
Mbilli has shown more overall against higher opposition, and that edge in proven consistency leads me to lean slightly toward him in what should be a thrilling fight.
Best Bet
This matchup is dangerous to call outright. Mbilli can overwhelm Martinez with activity, while Martinez has the precision to shut Mbilli down with a single shot. Both fighters have proven durability, as neither has been knocked down in their careers.
With that in mind, the safest play is to trust their toughness and take the very generous Over 8.5 rounds as the best bet.
Christian Mbilli vs Lester Martinez odds
| Method of victory | Christian Mbilli | Lester Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -175 | +140 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +160 | +400 |
| Win by points or decision | +250 | +320 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 9-13.
Christian Mbilli vs Lester Martinez tale of the tape
| Mbilli | Martinez | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-8.5 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Super Middleweight | Weight Class | Super Middleweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 29-0 | Record | 19-0 |
| 24 | Wins by KO | 16 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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