Junto Nakatani is warming up for what could be the biggest fight in Japanese history against Naoya Inoue, provided he gets past Ryosuke Nishida in this weekend’s premier boxing betting attraction.
Nakatani is poised to challenge Inoue soon, though he’ll have to handle undefeated champ Nishida, who would love nothing more than to play spoiler.
Boxing odds have Nakatani as the favorite at -1,250 while Nishida is a +630 underdog. Here are my best free Boxing picks and Nakatani vs. Nishida predictions from the Ariake Arena in Tokyo.
Nakatani vs Nishida prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Nakatani Moneyline (-1,250 at FanDuel)
- My best bet: Nakatani by KO/TKO (-150 at FanDuel)
Fight analysis
There’s no doubt that Junto Nakatani is an excellent fighter, and there’s no one more deserving of a potential clash with Inoue shortly. While his chances in that matchup would be slim, Nakatani’s path toward that marquee showdown continues as he faces undefeated but overmatched bantamweight champion Ryosuke Nishida.
A win here would tighten Nakatani’s grip on the division and set up the Inoue bout in Japan for 2026.
Nakatani enters this fight as a massive favorite, and for good reason. A three-division champion who only seems to improve as he moves up in weight, Nakatani possesses legitimate stopping power paired with elite boxing skills. Much like Inoue, when he hurts his opponents, he swarms with precision and intensity.
He’s coming off a third-round stoppage win over David Contreras in February, marking his fourth consecutive win by stoppage since moving up to bantamweight.
It’s not that Nishida is a bad fighter; it’s just that he’s in over his head. He was a decorated regional amateur who paused his boxing career for college before turning pro in 2019. Since then, he’s impressed, most notably by outpointing Emmanuel Rodriguez to win a world title. Nishida has fast hands and solid movement, but his defense can be shaky, and he lacks power.
His seventh-round stoppage of Anuchai Donsua last December was the result of a perfectly placed body shot, not an indication of overwhelming offense. That was just his second stoppage in his career.
Against a battle-tested, powerful, and still-improving Nakatani, Nishida simply doesn’t bring enough to the table. His average defense and lack of punching power make it hard to see a path to victory unless Nakatani completely implodes. Betting on an underdog who needs a perfect fight to win is rarely a wise play.
Expect a valiant effort from Nishida, but ultimately, Nakatani’s pressure, experience, and power should overwhelm him by the later rounds.
Best best analysis
Each of Nakatani’s fights at bantamweight has ended by knockout inside six rounds. The power advantage and Nishida’s lack of punching threat make it unlikely that the fight goes into the later rounds, let alone the scorecards.
My best bet is Nakatani to win by knockout, as his pressure and power should eventually overwhelm the undefeated champ.
Junto Nakatani vs Ryosuke Nishida odds
| Method of victory | Junto Nakatani | Ryosuke Nishida |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1250 | +630 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -150 | +1500 |
| Win by points or decision | +180 | +850 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 6-5.
Junto Nakatani vs Ryosuke Nishida tale of the tape
| Nakatani | Nishida | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 24 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 68 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 30-0 | Record | 10-2 |
| 23 | Wins by KO | 2 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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