We've got some crazy line movement in the Best Picture odds race for the 2026 Academy Awards, with both Hamnet and One Battle After Another surging to the top of the board over the last week.
The Oscars are still several months away, though, so a lot can still change as films hit multiplexes over the fall season.
Let's look at the latest Best Picture betting odds for the 98th Academy Awards, scheduled for Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET with Conan O'Brien set to return as host. We'll offer full analysis and a complete slate of picks closer to the night.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film |  |
|---|---|
| Hamnet | +300 |
| One Battle After Another | +350 |
| Sinners | +700 |
| Sentimental Value | +1000 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | +1200 |
| Rental Family | +1400 |
| Marty Supreme | +1400 |
| Jay Kelly | +1600 |
| Bugonia | +1600 |
| After the Hunt | +1600 |
| The Smashing Machine | +2000 |
| Highest 2 Lowest | +2000 |
| The Lost Bus | +2000 |
| Frankenstein | +2000 |
| The Ballad of a Small Player | +2000 |
| The Life of Chuck | +2000 |
| Nouvelle Vague | +2000 |
| Pressure | +2000 |
| Deliver Me From Nowhere | +2000 |
| A Big Bold Beautiful Journey | +2000 |
| Materialists | +2000 |
| Wicked: For Good | +2500 |
| Die My Love | +2500 |
| The History of Sound | +2500 |
| Roofman | +2800 |
| F1 | +2800 |
Odds as of 9-10.
A week ago, Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value had the shortest Best Picture odds at +650 after being celebrated coming out of the Cannes Film Festival in May.
However, as film festival season continued, early word on Hamnet - Chloe Zhao's film about William Shakespeare, his wife Agnes, and the death of their son - was extremely positive, and it shot up to favorite status at +350 from its previous perch of +900.
More drastic than that was how Paul Thomas Anderson's latest, One Battle After Another, went from +1400 to +1200 to +1000 to +800 to +350, where it now resides, in the hours after first reviews started pouring out in the wake of its Los Angeles premiere. Reactions have been supremely positive, with raves coming from throughout the industry (Steven Spielberg's seen it three times, already!).
All three of those movies seem like surefire locks to at least get a Best Picture nomination, but One Battle After Another's surge is at least somewhat surprising after it skipped festival season altogether.
If nothing else, this may add some value back on Sentimental Value, though the Academy may shy away from honoring a smaller, more independent production for the second consecutive year (see: Anora).
This could also be seen as "Anderson's time" as a filmmaker who has been widely respected and beloved throughout his career despite never winning an Oscar. He's been nominated for Best Director three times and got extremely unlucky with There Will Be Blood, which likely would have cleaned up had No Country for Old Men not been released in the same year.
It is also his biggest movie in terms of budget and scale. While it's loosely based on Thomas Pynchon's novel "Vineland" - which is hardly a mainstream proposition - the film had a reported budget in the $130-175 million range and looks to be full of action, tension, and big-ticket setpieces, all newish territory for PTA.
From a betting perspective, I wouldn't bet on it or Hamnet at their current valuations, but instead wait and see if that initial shine wears off. It's a long season, and it's far from decided.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value is drawing the shortest odds at +500 after a strong response at Cannes.
Odds have yet to hit the board for Best Director.
Odds have yet to hit the board for Best Actor and Best Actress.
The 2026 Oscars are scheduled for March 2, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Sean Baker's Anora won Best Picture in 2025 after emerging as a surprise frontrunner during the fall festival season.
Celebrated indie auteur Sean Baker, whose film Anora won Best Picture, took home the honors.
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for her titular role in Anora while Adrien Brody won for The Brutalist. It was Madison's first nomination while Brody previously won for The Pianist in 2003.
