We’re onto the second FedEx Cup Playoffs event, with the Top 50 headed to Caves Valley Golf Club for the BMW Championship.
It’s another loaded field with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and reigning Masters winner Rory McIlroy headlining the betting favorites in the BMW Championship odds. I’m looking further down the board, and Ben Griffin headlines my top longshot and sleeper golf picks for the week.
BMW Championship sleeper picks
- Griffin (+4000)
- Matsuyama (+5000)
- Pendrith (+7500)
BMW Championship sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Ben Griffin
+4000 at FanDuel
Ben Griffin has been the breakout star of the PGA Tour this season with 13 Top 20s, including a T11-T9 run across his past two events and a pair of victories.
He's gained true strokes across the board across the past two weeks, and I particularly value him ranking third in this field in putting. Add gaining true strokes on approaches in 10 straight tournaments to rank 10th in the metric, and I’m anticipating another solid week from Griffin at Caves Valley.
Sleeper pick to win: Hideki Matsuyama
+5000 at FanDuel
It’s been a sneaky run of four consecutive Top 20s for Hideki Matsuyama ahead of the BMW Championship, and he’s gained true strokes on approaches in six straight events and on the greens in five straight. He respectively ranks third and 21st in this field in the metrics during the stretches.
While I’m slightly concerned about his length and accuracy off the tee, it’s more than built into this price. Plus, Matsuyama’s a proven winner and gained true strokes off-the-tee at Caves Valley in the 2021 BMW Championship.
Sleeper pick to win: Taylor Pendrith
+7500 at bet365
Taylor Pendrith was in the hunt until a rough Sunday dropped him to a T28 finish in the FedEx St. Jude last week, and there’s still a lot to like about his length off the tee and work on the greens ahead of the BMW Championship.
The Canadian has gained true strokes across the board dating back to his T5 at the PGA Championship, which includes ranking 11th off-the-tee and 24th in putting. This should also be a solid course fit, with Pendrith’s lone PGA Tour win coming at a similar bomber track in the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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