The "Test of Champions" is set to live up to its name today with the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. This year's star-studded field features Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes winner Journalism among the field of eight thoroughbreds gunning for glory.
Horse racing can be notoriously difficult to handicap, so we reached out to ChatGPT to find out which horse will be first across the line. We provided everyone's favorite chatbot with key details about this year's Belmont Stakes horses, including speed figures, pedigree analysis, and post positions, as well as comprehensive trainer and jockey stats.
We even had ChatGPT consult long-range weather forecasts to consider how track conditions could enhance — or hinder — the race.
It considered the data carefully and, within a matter of seconds, provided us with Belmont Stakes Win, Place, and Show predictions as well as a pair of enticing long-shot picks.
The results were far from shocking, but the level of detail was impressive just the same.
The content below has been edited for clarity, length, and accuracy.
🏇 2025 Belmont Stakes Win, Place, Show predictions
🥇 Win: Sovereignty (2-1)
Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby champion, returns fresh after skipping the Preakness, a strategy that has historically benefited Belmont contenders. His powerful closing style suits the 1¼-mile distance at Saratoga, especially with anticipated early speed from front-runners like Rodriguez and Crudo. Trainer Bill Mott has prepared him meticulously, and jockey Junior Alvarado knows how to time his late surge. While Journalism is the morning-line favorite at 8-5, Sovereignty's odds offer better value for a horse poised to capitalize on a fast pace and outkick rivals in the stretch.
🥈 Place: Journalism (8-5)
Journalism, the Preakness winner and Derby runner-up, is the only horse contesting all three Triple Crown races this year. His resilience was evident at Pimlico, overcoming early trouble to secure victory. However, the quick turnaround and cumulative fatigue could impact his performance at Saratoga. Trainer Michael McCarthy might adjust tactics, possibly holding him back early to conserve energy. While his class is undeniable, the demanding schedule and potential for a hot early pace make him more suited for a place finish, especially with fresh challengers in the mix.
🥉 Show: Crudo (15-1)
Crudo presents an intriguing longshot with significant upside. After a wire-to-wire victory in the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day, he demonstrated the ability to control the pace. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who seeks his fifth Belmont win, Crudo could capitalize on a favorable trip if he secures an uncontested lead. While sustaining that speed over 1¼ miles is challenging, his current form and potential for a front-running strategy make him a compelling choice for a show bet, offering substantial returns for bettors seeking value beyond the top favorites.
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🐴 Dark horse candidates to watch
Hill Road (10-1)
Hill Road enters the Belmont Stakes with momentum, having secured a victory in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., this colt has demonstrated a strong closing kick, which could be advantageous if the race unfolds with a fast early pace. His pedigree suggests stamina, and his recent workouts indicate he's peaking at the right time. While he faces stiff competition from Sovereignty and Journalism, Hill Road's current form and potential for improvement make him a compelling option for bettors seeking value in exacta or trifecta wagers.
Rodriguez (6-1)
Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith, is a front-running colt who could dictate the pace of the race. After winning the Wood Memorial, he was sidelined due to a foot injury, missing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Now returning fresh, Rodriguez has the potential to capitalize on his early speed, especially if left uncontested on the lead. His training reports have been positive, and with Baffert's experience in preparing horses for Triple Crown races, Rodriguez could surprise the field. Bettors looking for a horse with gate-to-wire potential should consider including Rodriguez in their exotic bets.
Can AI beat the odds?
While AI provides data-driven insights, the Belmont Stakes often defies expectations. Factors like race-day conditions, crowd noise, and horse temperament can influence outcomes. Be sure to check our Belmont Stakes odds analysis and the carefully crafted picks from our in-house experts before wagering on the Test of Champions.
🔑 Key betting tips for the 2025 Belmont Stakes
Here are some additional tips to keep in mind to get the biggest bang for your buck:
Look for bounce-back candidates: Recent Belmont winners often bounced back from tough Derby or Preakness outings (e.g., Hill Road). Horses skipping the Preakness—like Sovereignty—often come in fresh and ready to fire.
Use exotics for value: Try exactas, trifectas, and superfectas combining favorites and mid-range contenders (e.g., Sovereignty/Journalism with Hill Road or Crudo) to capitalize on potential upsets.
Consider post positions + running style: Inside draws can help front-runners like Rodriguez, while outside posts may favor closers like Hill Road or Sovereignty, especially if the pace is hot early.
Watch the tote board: Significant late odds shifts might signal sharp money or last-minute buzz, especially on longshots like Crudo or Rodriguez.
Spread your bankroll: Instead of focusing on a single bet, diversify with a combination of win, place, and show bets plus modest exotic wagers for a balanced risk approach.
Belmont Stakes resources
- Belmont Stakes horses
- Belmont Stakes odds
- Belmont Stakes predictions
- Belmont Stakes trifecta, superfecta & exacta picks
- Belmont Stakes long shot picks
👀 Race factors to watch for on Saturday
Emerging contenders: Horses like Hill Road and Crudo are attracting attention, with Hill Road looking to build on his strong Peter Pan win and Crudo aiming to wire the field at big odds.
Track conditions: Saratoga’s surface and forecasted weather can greatly influence the outcome. Keep an eye on rain or a fast track, as either can shift betting value and race dynamics.
Post positions: The draw shapes strategy. For instance, Rodriguez in post 3 may try for an early lead, while Sovereignty in post 7 could stalk the pace.
Trainer and jockey experience: Top trainers like Todd Pletcher (Crudo) and Bill Mott (Sovereignty) bring crucial big-race savvy. Veteran jockeys like Irad Ortiz Jr. could make the difference in tight finishes.
Pace scenario: Several early speed horses (e.g., Rodriguez, Crudo) could ensure a fast pace, setting the table for closers like Sovereignty and Hill Road to pick them off late.
🧠 AI prediction methodology
Our AI-powered predictions for the 2025 Belmont Stakes are designed to blend data-driven insights with horse racing expertise. Our system ingests a vast array of data, including past performances, speed figures, pace analysis, and track conditions, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of each contender’s strengths and weaknesses.
We leverage advanced machine learning models trained on historical Belmont Stakes data, enabling us to identify patterns that influence race outcomes. These models factor in variables like post positions, jockey-trainer combinations, and recent workout performances to refine our predictions.
Importantly, we emphasize transparency: every AI-generated pick is accompanied by a brief rationale explaining the data points and logic that led to the recommendation. This empowers readers like yourself to make informed betting decisions with confidence. Our goal is to deliver objective, data-backed insights that go beyond gut feelings, helping you gain an edge on race day.
