Why limit yourself to win, place, and show bets when making Belmont Stakes predictions when there are hundreds or even thousands to be made going after the Belmont Stakes exacta, trifecta, and superfecta?
Just last year, 17-1 winner Dornoch helped trigger a $326.50 exacta, a $946 trifecta, and a $6,401 superfecta.
I'm taking a long look at the 2025 Belmont Stakes odds and offering up my free betting picks for the 157th "Run for the Carnations."
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Belmont Stakes trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks
Exacta pick
The exacta tasks the bettor with selecting the Top 2 finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager at the Belmont Stakes is $1. Bettors can also “box” an exacta, meaning the two (or more) selected Belmont Stakes horses on a ticket can finish in any order, albeit at an increased cost.
No. 6 Baeza (+400 at FanDuel Racing) tops my 2025 Belmont Stakes predictions. I expect this half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch to be much closer to the pace and lose less ground than he did when he ran a well-rated third in the Kentucky Derby.
He still has just one win to his name, but Baeza owns two of the fastest speed figures in the field. He was a strong second in the Santa Anita Derby two-back, giving Journalism a run for his money.
I respect Kentucky Derby winner No. 2 Sovereignty (2-1) and think he has a good chance to at least get second, making him a must-use in the exacta.
His Derby win was no fluke, as he's run no worse than second in five straight starts now, including his Fountain of Youth victory three-back. Three of the last four Belmont winners participated in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.
No. 7 Journalism may not be the greatest bet on the board as the 8-5 morning-line favorite, but the Preakness winner and Derby runner-up clearly has the talent capable of running a top-notch effort for the third time in five weeks.
He's only missed the exacta once in seven career starts.
No. 1 Hill Road (10-1) is worth a long look as a Belmont Stakes long shot. He could be sitting on a lifetime-best effort going third off the layoff.
The Peter Pan Stakes winner should be rolling late under Irad Ortiz Jr.
$6 exacta pick:
To win: No. 6 Baeza
Second place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
$4 exacta pick:
To win: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Second place: No. 6 Baeza
Total = $30
Trifecta pick
The trifecta requires the bettor to determine the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be significantly higher than the exacta, but both the ticket cost and the risk factor increase significantly, even with a minimum wager amount of 50 cents.
I'll simply build on my exacta strategy of "keying" Baeza in each leg of the Belmont Stakes trifecta.
$2 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 6 Baeza
Second place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Third place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
$2 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Second place: No. 6 Baeza
Third place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
$2 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Second place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Third place: No. 6 Baeza
Total = $36
Belmont Stakes resources
- Belmont Stakes horses
- Belmont Stakes odds
- Belmont Stakes AI predictions
- Belmont Stakes predictions
- Belmont Stakes long shot picks
Superfecta pick
The superfecta is an even tougher wager to hit than the trifecta, as it requires bettors to select the Top 4 finishers of a race in exact order. However, the potential payday can be among the highest in horse racing. The minimum wager amount is just 10 cents, making it somewhat easier to get involved.
I'll stick with the same four horses I used in the exacta and trifecta, leaning on Baeza hardest of all.
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 6 Baeza
Second place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Third place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Fourth place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Second place: No. 6 Baeza
Third place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Fourth place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Second place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Third place: No. 6 Baeza
Fourth place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Second place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Third place: No. 1 Hill Road, No. 2 Sovereignty, No. 7 Journalism
Fourth place: No. 6 Baeza
Total = $24
