The polls are open in Canada and Kalshi is rolling in dollars.
Kalshi, the first CFTC regulated trading exchange on future events outcomes, reached $4.5 million in action on today's Canadian Election results.
Key insights
- Kalshi is $4.5 million in handle on today's Canadian Election results.
- The Liberal Party expected to win by a solid margin.
- Following big event for Kalshi: Who will become the next pope?
The Liberal Party, led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, remains an impressive -600 favorite to win, but Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are less than 4 points behind in the latest polls and still very much in play at a nice price of +290.
Liberals with solid odds
Currently, the Liberal Party is at 81% to win on Kalshi, while the Conservatives are at 19%.
Poll closings are staggered at different times around the country to accommodate multiple time zones, with the first polls closing in Newfoundland and Labrador at 7 p.m. EDT, and the last closing in British Columbia at 10 p.m. EDT.
Kalshi's Canadian Election market opened Nov. 4, 2024. The market becomes official when an outcome is declared, with payout approximately two hours after closing.
Next pope betting action heats up
The other big pending event, awaiting an outcome, is who will be the next pope?
As of late last week, Kalshi already accepted over $1 million in this market, offering next pope odds for 15 potential replacements, ranging from 30% to less than 1% likelihood.
Cease-and-desists
Over the past few months, several U.S. states including Illinois, Maryland, Montana, Ohio, Nevada and New Jersey, issued cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi, claiming their services offered are unregulated and are not legal in those states.
Currently, Kalshi is operating in all 50 states.
Recently, the CFTC canceled a prediction market roundtable that was highly anticipated and expected to provide clarity about federally regulated sports event contracts that Kalshi, Robinhood, and others provide services for.
