American-born Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, against all odds, was named the next pope Thursday.
Prediction trading platform Kalshi said Prevost, who will be known as Pope Leo XIV, had a 1% chance of receiving the nomination less than one hour before he was announced.
Key Takeaways
- Prevost was not given higher than 3% odds over the last month.
- Italian Pietro Parolin was widely expected to take over for Pope Francis.
- One Kalshi user won more than $50,000 after Prevost was confirmed.
About one hour before the Sistine Chapel emitted white smoke from its chimney to signal that a new pope had been elected, Kalshi shared a video of Italian Pietro Parolin surging exponentially in odds to take the vacant seat.
THIS IS INSANE
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) May 8, 2025
PIETRO PAROLIN'S ODDS ARE SOARING TO BE THE NEXT POPE pic.twitter.com/u2uYoTUKp7
Movement like this shortly before an event often indicates a sure-fire result, but it surprised even the prediction markets. For example, first-overall NFL draft pick Cam Ward shortened to -10,000 to be the first pick just before the commissioner Roger Goodell called his name for the Tennessee Titans.
Parolin had long been the favorite to take over for Pope Francis, who passed away on April 21. He had a market-leading 22% chance to win the race one week ago and a 32.7% chance one month ago.
Prevost, 69, at no point over the last month was given a greater than 3% chance to move into the Vatican. That’s despite Kalshi reporting more than $10.6 million in trades involving next pope odds.
Kalshi on X (formerly Twitter) shared an image of a winning $526 contract purchased when Prevost only had a 1% chance to win. That savvy decision from the user resulted in $52,641 of holy winnings.
Someone on Kalshi is very happy today
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) May 8, 2025
100x on Robert Prevost pic.twitter.com/3PmJn8xrz5
Who is Pope Leo XIV?
So, who is Prevost – now Pope Leo XIV?
Born in Chicago, Prevost is the first American-born pope in the history of the church.
He received a bachelor’s degree in Catholic Theological Union from Villanova University. He began by working for the Augustinians and held various posts, including Bishop of Chiclayo in Peru from 2015-23.
Prevost became a cardinal after he was named Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops in 2023, significantly elevating his status in the Catholic Church. He was named the next pope following a vote by 133 red-robed cardinals from around the globe.
“He’s somebody that, even though he’s from the West, would be very attentive to the needs of a global church,” said Elise Allen, CNN’s Vatican analyst. “You’re talking about somebody who spent over half of his ecclesial career abroad as a missionary in Peru.”
U.S. President Donald Trump, who attended Pope Francis’ funeral, said on Truth Social it was a “great honor” for Prevost to become the first American pope.
“I look forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV,” Trump wrote. “It will be a very meaningful moment!”
