Canada’s most populous province is off to the polls again, a contest that could have consequences for Ontario’s competitive online sports betting and internet casino gambling market.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford triggered the next provincial election on Tuesday, dissolving the legislature and putting politicians on the campaign trail ahead of voting day on Feb. 27.
The election date is more than a year ahead of the previous, fixed election day. Ford, however, argues he needs another “strong mandate” from voters to protect the province from whatever plans U.S. President Donald Trump ultimately settles on for Canada.
Progressive Chalk-servatives
Ford has been Ontario’s premier since 2018 and his party won back-to-back majorities in the provincial legislature. Polls suggest a third majority is a strong possibility. A survey Abacus Data released on Wednesday showed Ford and the Progressive Conservatives with the support of 47% of respondents, followed by the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 19%.
Moreover, as of Wednesday afternoon, FanDuel offered odds in Ontario on the provincial election, with the PCs priced as -1500 favourites to form the next government at Queen’s Park, an implied 93.75% probability.
FanDuel (perhaps boldly) is taking bets on the Ontario election in Ontario with the campaign now underway.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) January 29, 2025
Ford and the PCs are -1500 faves to win, an implied probability of 93.75%. Limits apply but if you've got a dime and dreams of Tory victory an extra $66.67 could be yours! pic.twitter.com/d8kVGN5Lew
FanDuel Sportsbook is only available in Ontario because of the Ford government’s decision to open the province to private-sector iGaming operators, rather than abide by the previous online gambling monopoly the government granted a publicly-owned lottery corporation, OLG.
Ontario is the only Canadian province to implement such a market for legal sports betting, although Alberta is developing a similar system that could go live later in 2025.
There are now 51 regulated iGaming operators offering Ontario sports betting, iGaming, and poker. Another majority government for Ford and the PCs would likely leave those operators humming along, as they’ve now been doing for nearly three years.
It was also under Ford’s watch that the Ontario government referred a question to the province’s Court of Appeal regarding iGaming liquidity. In short, the Ford government is asking the court if it is legal to let Ontario gamblers play in online poker and paid daily contests against rivals in other countries, such as the U.S.
The Court of Appeal heard the online gaming reference in November, with lawyers for the provincial government arguing it should be legal to let locals play with gamblers abroad. A decision from the court is still pending.
However, if the court rules in favour of what the province argued, it could pave the way for the Ontario government to reach deals with international operators and regulators and deepen the pool of potential poker players.
A “yes” from the court could also lead to a return of paid daily fantasy contests in Ontario, which dried up with the competitive iGaming market's launch in 2022.
The province treats paid DFS as gambling and therefore subject to its iGaming regulations, including a requirement that all players must be physically located in Ontario. As a result, DraftKings and FanDuel shuttered their DFS businesses in the province in 2022, although they replaced them with online sports betting and iCasino products.
Fresh eyes vs. old hands
If Ford wins again, it means the same decision-makers who launched the court reference could be there when the court returns its decision. That could tee up a speedier implementation of international liquidity, depending on what the court says.
While that is speculating, so, too, is what a different government would do with iGaming in Ontario if it takes the reins. Party platforms are still to come, but they're more likely to focus on education, health care, and other, more important government priorities, not gambling.
Even so, there was a bit of activity in the provincial legislature that hints at what a Liberal or NDP government might do, which would be to further curb advertising by iGaming operators.
NDP members, for instance, introduced the "Ban iGaming Advertising Act" in 2023. The bill, as its name suggests, would have banned the promotion of online gambling sites and subject offenders to fines of between $25,000 and $1 million.
Yet the bill made no headway in the legislature and, along with other pending legislation, is now dead due to the election call. It remains to be seen if iGaming or brick-and-mortar gambling policies make it into Ontario’s political party platforms.
If you build it, will they vote?
Nevertheless, the election could have some bearing on the future of in-person gambling in Ontario.
Prior to triggering the campaign, Ford and the Conservatives kicked the tires on a plan to “modernize” the Niagara area, home to two of the province's biggest brick-and-mortar casinos, Fallsview and Casino Niagara.
Ford said his government was in talks with the operator of the two Niagara casinos, the Connecticut-based Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority, about the modernization drive. Another Tory majority could let the Ford government see their vision through, which, as I’ve written about, hopefully involves a world-class sportsbook.
