It was a 1-2 day here last night and today is an even tougher board with so much rain on the East Coast and books taking down plenty of props. There are certainly a few spots to exploit in the evening slate, however.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Tuesday, May 13.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 13
Woo u17.5 outs (+170)
Soriano u5.5 hits allowed (+100)
Valdez o1.5 walks allowed (-120)
Today's SP best bets
Yankees vs. Mariners
The angle: +170 is a giant price.
The move: Bryan Woo Under 17.5 outs (+170 at bet365)
This is a bet based heavily on that +170 price tag. Bryan Woo projects for 17.4 outs Tuesday night at home vs. the New York Yankees. He is a good pitcher but not a guy who touches triple-digit pitch counts in back-to-back starts. THE BAT is projecting 91 total pitches with a season average of 90 pitches.
Woo is perfect for this Over on the season but his list of opponents is littered with Bottom-15 offenses. The chances of getting to 18 outs in eight straight games with a pitch count of 90 are very low.
Will this win 50% of the time? Likely not. Is this beating the 37% implied for the +170 price? Yes. I will take almost every Under 17.5 at +160 or better, especially vs. the Yankees.
Angles vs. Padres
The angle: Soriano's total is as high as it's been all year
The move: Jose Soriano Under 5.5 hits allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
This prop was as high as +130 this morning but with 5.13 projected hits allowed, this even-money prop still projects +EV, per THE BAT.
Jose Soriano has had hit totals that usually open at 4.5. He doesn’t get deep and struggles with command, which also drives up his pitch count. He has gotten to 18 outs in just three of his eight starts and has thrown more than 90 pitches twice.
It’s not an easy matchup vs. the San Diego Padres, but that is priced. He’s a hit-per-inning pitcher who doesn’t go six innings.
Royals vs. Astros
The angle: This matchup is too priced in as Valdez's form is pushing this Over
The move: Framber Valdez Over 1.5 walks allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
This is a solid one despite the 20 points. Framber Valdez has gone Over this total in four straight games and has issued 17 free passes across 48 innings.
He's also a long-leashed starter who can get to 21 outs and see plenty of batters. THE BAT is projecting for 1.9 walks on 95 pitches vs. the Kansas City Royals.
The Houston Astros pitcher also is struggling with walks at home with nine walks allowed over his 18 innings at Daikin Park this season. I just need him to keep that recent walk form and see plenty of batters. Would love to get an early walk and I wouldn’t hate an IBB to Bobby Witt Jr.
Not intended for use in MA.
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