NASCAR Southern 500 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview for Today — Darlington Raceway

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs begin this evening at historic Darlington Raceway. USA has the coverage starting at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Our free betting picks have taken a long look at the Southern 500 odds, which see William Byron at the top prior to qualifying. 

Don't miss our Southern 500 predictions for August 31.

Odds to win 2025 Southern 500

Driver
Denny Hamlin	+425
William Byron	+450
Kyle Larson	+500
Ryan Blaney	+700
Chase Briscoe	+800
Tyler Reddick	+800
Christopher Bell	+1200
Chase Elliott	+1600
Brad Keselowski	+1800
Bubba Wallace	+2000
Ross Chastain	+2000
Josh Berry	+2500
Joey Logano	+2500
Kyle Busch	+3000
Chris Buescher	+3500
Erik Jones	+4000
Austin Cindric	+4500
Alex Bowman	+5000
Ty Gibbs	+5000
Austin Dillon	+5500

Odds as of 8-31.

Southern 500 field

We'll see 38 drivers take the green flag at Darlington on Sunday, with Derek Kraus (No. 44) and Timmy Hill (No. 66) joining the standard 36-car cast of characters.

Early bettors evidently have long memories, as favored William Byron (+400) did not win here back in April but did lead 243 of 297 laps. Hamlin, a five-time Darlington winner, is understandably toward the top of the betting board at +650, just behind Kyle Larson (+600). 

Hamlin is tied with last week's winner at Daytona, Ryan Blaney. Christopher Bell (+800) and Tyler Reddick (+850) round out the options below the +1000 threshold. 

Southern 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8-30.

Southern 500 pre-qualifying favorites

William Byron (+400)
William Byron has seven Top-8 finishes in his last 10 Darlington tries, with five of those in the Top-5. His Southern 500 finishes lately are: fifth, 34th, eighth, fourth, and 30th, respectively.

He started on the pole, led 243 laps, swept both stages, and finished runner-up this spring. 

Kyle Larson (+600)
Kyle Larson won the 2023 Southern 500 and swept both stages last year while leading 263 laps to finish fourth. However, he was only 35th this spring with a suspension failure on Lap 122.

Still, Larson led 45 laps in the 2016 Southern 500, 124 in 2017, 284 in 2018, 44 in 2019, 156 in 2021, and 30 in 2022. He also dominated at Homestead to win this spring, a track that’s most similar to Darlington. He also has four Top-6 finishes in the last six weeks.

Denny Hamlin (+650)
Denny Hamlin led 177 laps and swept both stages in the 2023 Southern 500. An issue relegated him to 25th.

Hamlin rebounded to finish fourth in the spring race last year, and seventh in the Southern 500. He then led 10 laps and won this spring for his sixth Top-5 finish — including three Top 2s — since 2021. He’s a five-time Darlington winner and has four runner-ups there, as well as 19 Top-10 finishes in 26 starts with 1,010 laps led. 

Southern 500 sleepers

Tyler Reddick (+850)
This track was made for Tyler Reddick; running the high line right up against the wall. Reddick has four Top-4 finishes in his last seven tries, including leading 90 laps in the 2023 Southern 500 and finishing runner-up. He had a Top-2 car in last year’s spring race, but contact with Buescher while battling for the win kept him out of victory lane.

He finished 10th in last year’s Southern 500 and led 42 laps to finish fourth this spring. He was also eighth in Homestead. 

Chase Briscoe (+1200)
He won last year’s race and qualified fourth this spring, but finished 28th. However, he also qualified and finished fourth at Homestead this season. Briscoe has four Top-5 finishes in the last seven weeks. 

Bubba Wallace (+2000)
Last two results show 16th and 21st. However, he qualified on pole in last year’s Southern 500, led 37 laps, and also finished second and ninth, respectively, in the stages. Prior, he had four consecutive Top-10 finishes. He also led a race-high 56 laps in a third-place finish at Homestead this spring. 

Chris Buescher (+2500)
A great driver to manage tires. Buescher has six Top-10 finishes in his last nine Darlington tries, including a third-place and sixth-place finish in the last two Southern 500s. He was sixth this past spring and sixth this spring at Homestead. 

Southern 500 fades

Ryan Blaney (+650)
Not a strong suit for him. Just three Top-10 finishes in 16 tries.

While he was ninth in both races in 2023 and fifth this spring, I’d fade him. He finished last 36th last spring, 37th in last year’s Southern 500 and 36th in Homestead this spring. 

Chase Elliott (+1400)
He’s 0-for-17 at Darlington but has four Top-8 finishes in his last seven, including being third and eighth, respectively, in 2023. However, that third was his best Darlington finish and he’s not led a lap since 2021. He was 18th in Homestead. 

Joey Logano (+1600)
Great in 2022 with finishes of first and fourth. Since? 18th and 12th in 2023, 21st and eighth last year, and 13th this spring, all with no laps led. He finished 14th in Homestead. 

Southern 500 prop pick: Christopher Bell Top-3 Finish

Christopher Bell (+850 outright) is inching closer to a Southern 500 win. He finished third in his last two Darlington starts and was sixth and fifth, respectively, in 2022 to give him four Top-6 finishes in his last seven Darlington tries.

Pick: Christopher Bell Top-3 Finish (+250 at DraftKings)

Darlington Raceway track analysis

Darlington is an older surface where you have to tip-toe around the track rather than go all out every lap. While I get these types of races aren’t for everybody, this is what makes racing fun in my eyes.

There’s a reason why veterans win this race on a nuanced and seasoned track; seven of the last 13 here were won by drivers in their 40s. 2023 witnessed William Byron and Kyle Larson win. While they’re both on the younger end of the scale, Larson is in his 30s and has been racing for a decade in Cup. Byron is already in his sixth season.

Keselowski, last year’s spring race winner, was 40. Hamlin won this past spring and is the oldest driver in the garage. 

Cautions are typically limited and teams have to try out different strategies, which is why managing tire wear is crucial. This isn’t the typical new-school race where drivers are all bunched up in the end and can just plow over cars to get by. It’s going to be spread out and technical. 

That sets up varying strategies on when to pit. Fresh tires can gain a ton of ground and speed on those going around the track on old sets of Goodyears. However, eventually, the new tires fade, and those on old tires will pit for new and gain the advantage.

Whoever can work this game the best usually wins, and usually it’s a veteran who manages his tires over the run to limit the fall off.

Southern 500 trends

• Seven of the last nine Darlington race winners started in the Top 5, after just twice in the previous 17. The pole-sitter has won just twice since the 1997 Southern 500 (40 races). The last two winners started from third.
• Every race winner at Darlington during the stage era has scored stage points. But what’s odd is that the race winner at Darlington has never won a stage.
• The final green flag stretch was less than 17 laps in only two of the last 10 Darlington races.

Southern 500 info

Previous Southern 500 winners

Every winner since 2006 at Darlington had a minimum of 100 career Cup starts.

How to make Southern 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.

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