Do you like road racing? You'd better, because the NASCAR Cup Series is heading to Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota Save Mart 350. TNT has the coverage at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Although everyone is saying this should be another race for Shane van Gisbergen to win, like last week, I'm doing everything I can not to buy into the hype.
After all, making NASCAR race picks would be no fun if I just called it for SVG and said, "Save your money for the next one, folks." Plus, SVG isn't anunbeatable force — he's human.
My free betting picks will be rolling with drivers like Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, and Ross Chastain. They may not be household names, per se, but these bets do offer +EV, and that's what we want when we're slinging the dough down on these guys.
NASCAR prop picks for Toyota Save Mart 350
- Top 5: Gibbs (+220)
- Top 3: Bell (+500)
- Top 10: Chastain (+100)
NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 props and best bets
Top 5 Finish: Ty Gibbs (+220 at bet365)
Ty Gibbs just finished second in the Chicago Road Race, and this may be an overreaction, but hear me out.
Gibbs led 27 laps in Mexico City before finishing in 11th place, and according to Racing Insights, Gibbs ranks in the Top 10 in passing, defense, and restarts on road courses in 2025, He's also fourth in average running position at 10.92.
Of course, Gibbs’ previous two Sonoma starts resulted in an average finish of 27.5, but the way he's driving lately suggests a better finish could be in the cards. He has accumulated five career Top 5 finishes on road and street courses in the Cup Series, which proves a Top 5 finish is in his wheelhouse.
I personally have this line projected for around +150, so we are getting some value in this prop. We just need some racing luck.
Top 3 Finish: Christopher Bell (+500 at bet365)
I'm not going to lie, I'm high on Christopher Bell this week.
Bell is one of the Cup Series’ most consistent and successful road course racers in recent years, with three career wins and eight Top 5s in 25 road course starts, giving him an impressive Top 5 rate of 32% on these tracks.
He won the 2025 season’s first road course race at Circuit of the Americas, passing Kyle Busch late and holding off William Byron and Tyler Reddick — both elite road course racers in their own right — to secure his 11th career Cup victory.
Bell’s road course badassery is further empowered by his take-no-prisoners performances at COTA, where he has finished in the Top 5 in two of his last four starts, including a runner-up in 2024 and a win in 2025. He also ranks among the best in stage wins on road courses since 2022, tied with Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick for the most (four each).
In 2024, Bell posted career highs in Top 5s (15), Top 10s (23), and laps led (1,145), and he closed the season with eight Top 5s and a 6.4 average finish over the final 12 races, which is solid. Bell’s strong average starting positions — critical at Sonoma, where track position is key — put him in the running for a Top 3 finish.
Not forgetting to mention, +500 is a nice number in this spot. That's why I'm okay giving him the nod here.
Top 10 Finish: Ross Chastain (+100 at bet365)
You might hate Ross Chastain like he's NASCAR's version of Margaret Thatcher, but once the spilled tea is cleaned up, you'll see that Chastain offers a good amount of value.
In his three Cup Series starts at Sonoma since 2021, Chastain has never finished worse than seventh. That’s not a fluke — that’s consistency on one of NASCAR’s trickiest road courses.
His average finish at Sonoma? A rock-solid 7.3. For a guy who’s made a name for himself as a relentless racer, that’s exactly the kind of steady performance you want to see.
But it’s not just about history. Chastain’s 2025 season has been all about hanging around the front. He’s already stacked up nine Top 10s this year, and his average finish sits at a respectable 14.21. That tells you he’s not just surviving — he’s contending.
Add in the fact that he recently clocked laps faster than the old track record during a Sonoma tire test, and you’ve got a driver who’s dialed in and ready for the challenge.
And you're giving me a +100 price? That's class, mate. Let's get it.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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