Most analysts agree: the 2025 NBA Draft really starts at pick No. 5. That’s because the buzz around Duke guard Kon Kneuppel landing at No. 4 to the Charlotte Hornets is growing louder by the day.
But if you’re diving into the latest NBA Draft odds, it pays to expect the unexpected. A lot of the so-called “insider intel” fueling mock drafts is often just strategic smoke-screening by front offices.
With that in mind, here are three NBA picks for the 2025 NBA Draft — tipping off tonight from Barclays Center in Brooklyn — where value may lie in zigging while the crowd zags.
2025 NBA Draft Best Bets
🏀 No. 4 pick: Ace Bailey (+350)
🏀 Noa Essengue o9.5 (-200)
🏀 Derik Queen o11.5 (-110)
Top Round 1 Picks for the 2025 NBA Draft
No. 4 Pick: Ace Bailey (+350 at bet365)
No one knows where Ace Bailey will go. He has done his best to distance himself from Philadelphia (No. 3 pick), Charlotte (No. 4), and Utah (No. 5), but only so much is within his control.
Meanwhile, the Hornets supposedly have zeroed in on Duke shooter Kon Kneuppel, but he should be available beyond fourth overall.
Kneuppel is as short as -145 (at DraftKings) to go No. 4. However, Charlotte could take the risk of trading back and still landing him, knowing if they do not secure Kneuppel, they could still target a shooter like Oklahoma point guard Jeremiah Fears or Texas shooter Tre Johnson.
For that matter, the Hornets could still choose to snag Bailey.
Simply enough, there is logic in betting on chaos around Bailey, and the +350 payout at No. 4 brings some intrigue.
For that matter, FanDuel offers a +850 payout on an exacta of the first four picks being:
- Cooper Flagg
- Dylan Harper
- VJ Edgecombe
- Ace Bailey
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Noa Essengue Over 9.5 (-200 at DraftKings)
A German forward, Noa Essengue has not worked out for anyone in the pre-draft process. That is not a ploy from him like it is from Bailey.
Essengue’s season is still afoot, Ratiopharm Ulm now tied 2-2 in the best-of-five championship round of Bundesliga. A loss on Tuesday prolonged the series, but Ulm has a home game with a chance to win it all on Thursday.
Yet Essengue will not play in that game, as he has left the team to attend the draft. Get ready for some talking heads to lament his lack of morality and care about the game.
Essengue played 12:37 in Game 3, scoring four points. That matched his Game 2 output and exceeded his three points in Game 1. Essengue has not been the key to Ulm’s title contention.
The question at No. 9 is if the Raptors will snag Essengue. Effectively, betting the Over 9.5 is betting that Toronto will take anyone other than Essengue, as there is little talk of him going before the Raptors’ pick.
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Derik Queen Over 11.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Maryland forward did not fare well in combine testing. He is widely seen as a defensive liability.
Yet Derik Queen remains a surefire lottery pick. Let that show you just how much his offensive repertoire is appreciated.
This drop in mock drafts goes beyond Queen's poor test results and questionable defensive focus. He is a 6-foot-9 post player and shot 20% from deep in his one collegiate season.
Queen is not necessarily applicable to the version of modern basketball we just saw from the Thunder and the Pacers. Spending a top-10 pick on someone who would not fit a championship roster is a foolish move.
Someone will end up snagging Queen, but he does not have the ceiling needed to inspire the grandest dreams in 2025.
