Can the Indiana Pacers advance to the Eastern Conference Finals tonight? That may depend on how healthy Cleveland Cavaliers superstar Donovan Mitchell is as he fights a balky ankle.
Meanwhile, Game 5 between the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be a must-watch affair as neither side wants to fall behind in such a tight series.
Let’s look through the NBA player props to find some NBA picks for the two playoff games on Tuesday, May 13.
Best NBA player props today
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Hunter u1.5 threes (-155) - Mitchell o27.5 points (-110)
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Jokic u8.5 assists (-135)
NBA player props for May 13
De’Andre Hunter Under 1.5 threes (-155 at bet365)
Does anyone really think Donovan Mitchell will not go tonight?
Officially considered questionable, Mitchell reportedly went through his usual morning shootaround routine on Tuesday, furthering confidence the Cavs’ best player will put on a show in this crucial Game 5.
Mitchell warrants notice because with the ball in his hands, there will be fewer chances for De'Andre Hunter, as well as likely less playing time.
Hunter’s minutes have already dwindled in this series, down to fewer than 16 in Game 4, and not only because his emotions led to foul trouble. More accurately, his dislocated thumb on his shooting hand has turned Hunter largely ineffectual.
That is only understandable. Opposable thumbs are what make basketball possible. With his injury, Hunter has gone 2 of 10 from the field in the last two games, including 1-for-7 from deep.
Fewer minutes, more Mitchell dominance, and Hunter’s injury make this juice worth the squeeze.
Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Dropping this points prop to 27.5 is a clear statement Mitchell’s ankle may be a problem after he left Game 4 early, logging only 20 minutes. Then again, that was already a blowout. Mitchell was being prudent.
This line is an overreaction.
Mitchell averaged 41.3 points in the first three games against the Pacers, clearing this prop by multiple buckets in each outing. No, it was not efficient, needing 29.7 shots per game to average those 41.3 points, but Mitchell’s foul drawing brought in a hint of efficiency. Then again, clearing this prop does not need efficiency, only points.
Mitchell has faced elimination seven times in his career, averaging 26.7 points in those games. With Cleveland, he's faced elimination twice, averaging 33.5 points as the Cavs’ singular engine.
That career-long number may be concerning, but Utah had more pieces. Cleveland sought Mitchell specifically to be the piece in these moments.
He's averaged 28.9 points this postseason, clearing this prop in five of eight games. His ankle should not yield this much doubt.
Nikola Jokic Under 8.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
The want is to bet on Nikola Jokic. The want is to take the Over on his 27.5 points, available at -130 at bet365. The want is to believe in the best player in the world bringing ample drama to these playoffs.
Not taking that is not to doubt Jokic. It is an acknowledgement he has fallen short of that points prop in three straight games against the Thunder, in some part because those games have slowed down.
Game 3 fell short of its total despite overtime, while Game 4 was some comically ugly basketball. There may not be enough points overall for Jokic to get to 28 without taking over the second half all on his own.
That latter logic supports this assists Under, too. Points are drying up in a series in which Jokic has struggled to move the ball, anyway. He's not cleared this prop yet through four games, averaging just 5.25 assists thus far.
Credit Oklahoma City’s defense. It disrupts passing lanes, remains disciplined, and runs depth to expose Denver’s lack of it.
No part of this matchup breaks the Nuggets’ way except for Jokic’s singular ability to win a game on his own. Usually, that shows up in a packed stat line, double-digit assists rivaling double-digit rebounds. But not in this series.
To reach the Western Conference Finals, Jokic may need to embrace “on his own” in a more literal sense.
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NBA odds today
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