Ignore the Game 2 blowout. The Oklahoma City Thunder winning by 43 points on Wednesday night has no impact on Game 3. The Denver Nuggets have lost postseason blowouts before. And they have responded before.
My Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions do not fully trust the home underdogs, but some belief in the 2023 NBA champions makes sense for my NBA picks.
Tip comes at 10 p.m. ET on Friday, May 9 on TNT.
Who will win Thunder vs Nuggets Game 3?
The Oklahoma City Thunder should be favored. That is logical. They are the best team in the NBA.
And Oklahoma City beat the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in the season opener.
Let’s not overthink Game 3. Trust the Thunder to win this. But Game 4 is where this series could get wildly interesting.
Thunder vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
No, this did not cash in Game 2. Yes, it was also my best bet then.
But did any Nuggets Overs cash in Game 2? You would like to think the postseason would be void of such duds, but that is not the world we live in.
Such debacles are not unprecedented for Denver. The Nuggets lost by 45 points to the Timberwolves in Game 6 last year. Nikola Jokic followed up that nine-rebound showing with 19 in Game 7.
How about a 20-point loss to the Warriors in 2022? Jokic responded to that 11-rebound letdown with 18 in the next game. Spot a 25-point loss to Phoenix in 2021 with just 13 rebounds and then notice his 20 rebounds in the next game.
Do not be dissuaded from this bet because Jokic and the Nuggets never showed up in Game 2. Instead, be emboldened.
Jokic cleared this prop in two of four regular-season matchups with the Thunder, averaging 15.8 rebounds in those games. He also snagged 22 boards in Game 1.
Ignore the Game 2 letdown. Jokic is too big for the Thunder to keep off the glass. And his physical fouls in the third quarter of Game 2 may have been intentional to establish a new baseline for physicality in Game 3.
Lastly, and perhaps this is obvious, Oklahoma City will not be, as a team, part of the 50-40-90 club for a second straight game. The Thunder seemingly making everything in Game 2 cut down on Jokic’s rebounding opportunities, simply enough. A few more misses will only help this cause.
Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds
Nuggets team total Over 114.5
Jamal Murray Over 20.5 points
Let’s be blunt: There is no version of this series where Denver out-defends Oklahoma City. After the All-Star Break, the Nuggets ranked No. 23 in defensive rating, a number below such stalwarts as the Wizards, Nets, and Hawks.
They lack the depth and athleticism to be a quality defense nowadays. That is simply a reality, one that came with losing Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in back-to-back offseasons.
So Denver should lean on its offense in these two home games. It could, in theory, outscore Oklahoma City. The highest levels of the Nuggets’ offense begin with Jamal Murray tapping into his best self. When it is Denver’s only hope, that emphasis should yield betting value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Nuggets odds
Thunder vs Nuggets live odds
Thunder vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4.5 (-110) | Denver +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -200 | Denver +165
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- A spread favoring Oklahoma City by five points agrees with ignoring Game 2. That closed with a spread of -10.5. A 5.5-point move simply speaks to switching home courts.
- While Denver used to be an against-the-spread behemoth at home, the Nuggets went just 20-25 ATS at home this season, including the first round.
- Raising the total to 233.5 speaks to the trend between these two teams, with three straight meetings going Over their totals and by an average of 24 points.
Thunder vs Nuggets trend
Five straight Denver games have gone Over their totals and by an average of 17.9 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Thunder vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Friday, 5-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, Max |
Thunder vs Nuggets latest injuries
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