It’s time for most teams to dive head-first into conference play, and that presents us with some terrific opportunities for upsets as we move into Week 4 of the college football season.
Week 3 of the college football season saw us go 2-1 in our college football picks, including Old Dominion’s takedown of Virginia Tech on the road.
We go for another winning week as we break down the three best upsets for this weekend’s slate.
CFB Week 4 upset picks
Nebraska ML (+112)
NC State ML (+132)
Arizona State ML (+114)
Nebraska moneyline
What’s so special about September 17, 2016? Other than it being my birthday, of course — and yes, all belated gifts are happily accepted!
It’s also the last time Nebraska defeated a ranked opponent in football... and you had better believe Dylan Raiola and the folks in Lincoln are well aware of that milestone.
Ten years, more than 25 games, and zero wins. That wears on a fanbase, but there’s a good chance they finally get to end that streak when Michigan rolls into town on Saturday. After all, that environment could be extremely problematic for Bryce Underwood.
He struggled in his first road game, with Oklahoma holding him to just 142 yards on a putrid 9-of-24 passing. The Wolverines managed just three drives of over 50 yards, one of which came via a 75-yard touchdown run.
The other two drives resulted in a total of three points. That includes a missed field goal, something that has been a problem this season for the Wolverines — and could very well be the reason they lose here.
Until Underwood shows he can produce on the road, I can’t back this Michigan offense to get the job done against a quality opponent. Take the Huskers to end their misery and take a huge step forward.
NC State moneyline
You’d think that Duke would be 3-0 with the offensive numbers put up so far. Darian Mensah’s doing his part, having thrown for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns with just two picks.
However, poorly-timed turnovers and an extremely leaky defense have been problematic. Five turnovers against Illinois — four of which came after halftime — saw a one-point game at the break turn into a blowout loss for Duke.
Last week’s seven-point defeat to Tulane saw the Blue Devils fail on fourth down and throw a pick on their next possession. Those turnovers helped the Green Wave take a 24-3 lead, putting Duke in a hole it would never escape.
Opponents are racking up explosive runs at every opportunity, and mobile quarterbacks are torching them. Jake Retzlaff rushed for four touchdowns last week. He had 111 of Tulane’s 156 rushing yards, on top of throwing for 245 yards on 15 completions.
Sitting at 1-2, Duke ranks 101st in late-down success on defense and 121st in EPA/pass. Meanwhile, NC State is positioned 34th in EPA/pass and 46th in early down EPA/play.
CJ Bailey is averaging four yards a carry through three games and has three touchdowns already. Hollywood Smothers also has home-run ability, posting a pair of 140+ yard performances in two games against ACC foes.
The Wolfpack will hurt Duke both on the ground and through the air, forcing enough turnovers to get the win.
Arizona State moneyline
I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup, in part because of Baylor’s performance against SMU.
Don’t get me wrong, it was a good win for the Bears. However, let’s not forget it took SMU blowing a 14-point lead with less than six minutes remaining — along with numerous fourth-down conversions — to get there.
Arizona State is playing quite well, but it's also limiting what teams do when they reach the red zone. Opponents are scoring just 2.9 points per quality possession, one of the best marks in college football.
On their end, the Sun Devils are generating 4.2 points per quality possession. The offensive line deserves a ton of credit for that, picking up 3.6 line yards per rush as their backs average nearly two second-level yards per carry.
ASU ranks in the Top 25 in explosive rush rate and ninth in EPA/run. A Top 15 success rate on the ground will cause major headaches for a Baylor defense that sits in the Bottom 10 in line yards allowed and stuff rate, as well as the Bottom 20 in rush EPA/play.
The other reason the Sun Devils will win this game is third-down play. They rank 31st in third-down defensive success, while Baylor enters 115th.
Stalled drives on offense and an inability to keep their defense off the field will be the downfall for the Bears.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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