The college football season starts in five weeks. You heard me.
With the increased roster turnover of the transfer era, projecting preseason rosters has become that much more challenging.
Frankly, too many people are unwilling to put in that work before the season, leaving this market somewhat untapped.
Season win total Unders have always been unpopular, but they can be profitable.
Yes, all three of these college football picks are Unders.
Three Win Total Bets to Lock In for 2025
Virginia Under 6.5 wins (-135 at BetMGM)
It is make-or-break time for Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott.
The former offensive coordinator at Clemson has struggled to an 11-23 overall record at Virginia, most undone by his offense.
The tragic end of his debut season in 2022 removed all employment pressure from this conversation for a couple of years, but stumbling to a 1-6 end last season has brought the unfortunate realities of this business back to the forefront.
Be surprised if Elliott coaches all 12 games for the Cavaliers this season. Logic expects Virginia to begin the season 3-1, but games against Florida State and at Louisville before an idle week could return the Cavaliers to .500 and ignite both stress and memories of last season’s collapse.
Only one of those final six games — vs. Wake Forest — presents as a likely win.
Virginia ranked No. 16 in the ACC last year in scoring, managing just 22.7 points per game, down from 23.3 in 2023. The defense actually improved by five points per game, but that was not enough to salvage the offensive debacle.
Much ado can be made about North Texas transfer quarterback Chandler Morris and eight offensive line transfers, but that is not a position that can be rebuilt through the transfer portal.
The Cavaliers’ schedule does them the favor of dodging Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech. However, facing quality defensive lines like Duke’s, Florida State’s, and Louisville’s counteracts some of that fortune.
Betting on Virginia to hit the Over on its win total would be a bet on the Cavaliers winning both at North Carolina — probably as a touchdown underdog — and at Cal.
This coaching staff has executed exactly one road upset per season in its three years in Charlottesville, going 3-11 outright in that span.
Expecting two such upsets this season would be a hefty hurdle, particularly since those games come in back-to-back weeks when Elliott’s job may be most clearly teetering.
Akron Under 4 wins (+125 at Circa Sports)
This number can be found more conservatively at Under 4.5, with the juice out to -145 at bet365. Other books price it as low as -175.
Risk the push at four. The Akron Zips will not make you regret it.
Joe Moorhead has not found that success in his three years at Akron, going just 8-28 in that stretch, last year being the high-water mark at 4-8.
Winning four games last year required Akron to prevail in overtime in the final game of the season, not to mention score a late fourth-quarter touchdown against Eastern Michigan to escape 25-21 despite being outgained by 98 yards.
After practices were reduced by four hours per week last season as a warning to better academic grades, Akron still fell short of needed academic benchmarks and has been ruled ineligible for the postseason this year.
No, the Zips were not likely to find a bowl game, but this declaration is just a statement on the struggle within the program in all regards.
On the field, six offensive line transfers do not assuage worries about a line returning only two starters, one of whom started just half of last season. Worse yet, Akron returns a mere three defensive starters.
Quarterback Ben Finley played well last season, but he can inspire only so much faith.
It would not be a thorough shock if the Zips lost to FCS-level Duquesne on Sept. 20. To top this win total, they need to obviously win that game, but then they also probably need to sweep games against UMass, Kent State, and Ball State.
Even then, another win would be needed.
The two most likely candidates would be against Central Michigan in early October or at Bowling Green to end the season. Akron could be a two-score underdog at Bowling Green on Nov. 18, so don’t pin hopes of hitting the Over on the season win total with an upset there.
And yes, Akron ends its season on Nov. 18. The Zips have one of their idle weeks in the final week of the season, not exactly the kind of thought process that yields lucky breaks.
Moorhead should be given the right to coach out the season, no matter how ugly things get, but then, expect the coaching veteran to helm an offense in the Big Ten next year.
Ohio State Under 10.5 wins (-130 at FanDuel)
It is not hard to argue the Ohio State Buckeyes have the best roster in the country, sitting atop SP+ rankings exiting spring practices and tied for No. 1 in the annual Blue-Chip ratio.
The defending national champions inarguably have the best offensive player in the country in sophomore receiver Jeremiah Smith, as well as the best defensive player in the country in junior safety Caleb Downs.
Yet, bookmakers clearly expect the Buckeyes to lose multiple times this regular season.
Why? Well, for one thing, they host two other top-five teams in Texas and Penn State.
For another, Ohio State has to head to Michigan.
How confident are you in Ryan Day winning two of those three games?
Let’s not put any asterisks on his national title. It was an utterly dominant run through the College Football Playoff.
However, there was something rather different about Ohio State last season, something beyond a defensive line filled with players who spurned the NFL for an additional year, something beyond a one-two punch in the backfield partly courtesy of Mississippi, and something beyond offensive line depth that survived multiple postseason injuries.
Day leaned on Chip Kelly as both his offensive coordinator and his mentor last season, while Jim Knowles dialed in diabolically as defensive coordinator.
Well, guess who left Columbus? Kelly headed to the NFL, and Knowles is now in charge of Penn State’s defense.
Do you want to trust Ryan Day to win two of those three massive games while relying on first-time offensive coordinator Brian Hartline and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in his first on-field coaching role since 2020?
Add to that the challenge of Day and Hartline needing to win two of those three massive games, including the season opener against Texas, while relying on a first-time starter at quarterback in Julian Sayin.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
