Matthew Tkachuk is a big game player you want on your team when the chips are down.
Tkachuk opened the playoffs with a three-point game and has consistently produced throughout the playoffs, recording 18 points through 20 games while going back-to-back without a point only once.
Let’s take a look at my favorite ways to target the Matthew Tkachuk odds in Game 4 with my NHL picks for Oilers vs. Panthers.
Matthew Tkachuk player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Matthew Tkachuk best bet
Over 0.5 assists (-110 at BET99)
Matthew Tkachuk is a fantastic dual-threat player, but his bread and butter is distributing the puck below the dot and creating high-danger chances for his teammates.
The proof is in the pudding. Tkachuk scored 48 goals over the last two regular seasons while assisting on 97 along the way. That equates to more than two helpers for every goal scored.
The rate has been nearly identical this time around, with the pesky two-way winger averaging 2.60 assists per goal in this year’s playoffs. He started this Florida Panthers run quietly, which makes sense given that he was shaking off the rust after returning from injury.
He has since ramped things up in a big way, piling up 10 assists over his last 13 games. This includes two assists through three meetings against the Edmonton Oilers.
He’s also a focal point on the top power-play unit. Tkachuk ranks first among Panthers in assist rate on the man advantage but sits fourth in shot rate, only ahead of defensemen Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad.
This suggests that Tkachuk is more interested in facilitating for others than serving as a go-to shooter, thereby increasing his assist chances.
Matthew Tkachuk same-game parlay
Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists
Matthew Tkachuk Under 2.5 shots
Over 5.5
Matthew Tkachuk was much more of a shooter in the regular season. He generated three shots per game while logging more than six attempts.
We’ve seen a massive decrease in his shot outputs during the playoffs. Tkachuk has averaged just 1.7 shots on 4.5 attempts and cleared this line in only six of 20 appearances.
Whether it be playing below 100%, skating on a line with the hottest goalscorer around, facing stiffer competition in the playoffs, or a combination of all three, it’s clear he’s simply not going to generate the volume of shots we grew accustomed to seeing in the regular season.
Finally, I expect the goals to keep flowing in Game 4. The Panthers have as much scoring depth as any team in the league, and Stuart Skinner’s play has been largely underwhelming all season long.
He’s going to have a tough time limiting Tkachuk and the Panthers, forcing the Oilers — led by two of the best players in the world — to score goals in bunches to keep up.
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