Following the first in-person debates between party leaders, the Liberals maintain a strong lead atop the Canadian Federal Election odds board as -310 favourites. However, the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre is still in play at +220, and polls indicate they're gaining ground.
That's the only good news for the Conservatives since January, when they were an overwhelming favourite. Things have been trending in the Liberals' direction ever since new Prime Minister Mark Carney took over for Justin Trudeau and called a snap election for April 28.
With the election less than two weeks away, here are the latest Canadian election odds for 2025.
2025 Canadian Federal Election odds
| Party |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Liberal Party |
-310 | 75.76% |
 Conservative Party |
+220 | 31.25% |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% |
Odds as of April 17, 2025
- 📆 The 45th Canadian Federal Election will take place on April 28, 2025.
- 🔥Favourite: The Liberal Party (-310)
- ⬇️ The Conservative Party (+220)
Canadian Election poll projections
The Conservative Party is now at +220 at BET99, trailing the once-floundering Liberals. Justin Trudeau's resignation — and subsequent nomination of Carney as Prime Minister — has turned Canadian politics on its face, eliminating a massive Conservative edge that saw the Pierre Poilievre-led party carry a -2000 (95.2% implied probability) price at the start of January.
The Liberal Party has subsequently moved from a +900 (10% probability) long shot to a commanding -310 favourite, with the momentum squarely in Carney's favour less than three weeks away from the election. In fact, the Liberals are a pick'em to win a majority, despite falling well short of the 170 seats needed for that in the last two elections.
The other parties have fallen so far in the polls that they aren't individually listed anymore, with "Any Other Party" priced at +7500.
The latest polling by Nanos Research has 44.1% of Canadians supporting the Liberals, with 38.8% backing the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the poll tracker at the CBC gives the Liberals a 6-point lead (44.1 to 37.9) over the Conservatives.
That's a huge shift from January, when the Conservatives held a 26-point advantage. It's even a big change from last month when the Liberals had a 2-point lead in the polls and were slim -130 favourites on the odds board.
Canadian Election odds favourite: Liberal Party -310
With Canada's economy struggling amid a housing crisis and the health care system in shambles, polls at the end of last year indicated that the majority of Canadians wanted a change in government.
With many in his own party turning against him, embattled Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 that he would resign once a new party leader was selected.
The departure of the increasingly unpopular Trudeau has helped the Liberals, who have surged following Carney's takeover. Immediately after Trudeau announced his impending resignation, the Liberals gained nearly seven points in the polls and have continued to gain ground ever since Carney was officially named the party leader on March 9.
As the former governor of the Bank of Canada (2008 to 2013) as well the governor of the Bank of England (2013 to 2020), Carney is hoping that his credentials as a financial expert will help him win over voters.
Support for the Liberals has plateaued in recent weeks, which might indicate that the boost of a new leader may have hit a ceiling. Carney has come under fire for taking parts of the Conservative platform (like getting rid of the carbon tax) and making them his own. He's also under the microscope for potential conflicts of interest with his own finances.
Odds of Liberal Party winning next election: -310
Canadian Election odds: Conservative Party +220
Just three months ago, the Conservatives were in the driver's seat and looked like a lock to win the election. However, a few things have occurred that have seen them tumble in the polls and, subsequently, the political odds board.
The resignation of Trudeau obviously had an impact, but the on-going trade war with the United States has been even more detrimental to the Conservative cause. Over the last few years, the Conservative movement in Canada has been strongly influenced by populism and the MAGA movement south of the border.
However, with Trump leveling insults and tariffs against his northern neighbours, Canadians have united in opposition, embracing the "elbows up" slogan. That's bad optics for the Conservatives and Poilievre, who have done a poor job of distancing themselves from the Trump regime.
Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke has criticized his party's inadequate messaging around what it would do to try and stop the tariffs and annexationist threats. He has even said that Poilievre is too "Trump-y" with his sloganeering and political attacks and needs to pivot to regain ground.
In addition, questions have surfaced regarding Poilievre's refusal to get security clearance and his limited access to the media.
That's done nothing to engender trust among Canadians, who have soured on Poilievre's narrative of a divided nation. In a recent survey by Nanos, 62% of respondents said that Carney would do the best job in talks with Trump, with only 24% choosing Poilievre.
That said, the Conservatives have narrowed the gap and have improved two points in the polls over the last week. In fact, Conservative support is actually the highest it has been in 14 years at nearly 39%. It isn't that they've lost support, but the Liberals have gained the support that used to belong to the NDP, turning this into a two-horse race.
Odds of Conservatives winning next election: +220
Canadian Election odds movement: A roller coaster in 2025
Here is a look at the wild ride the Canadian Election odds have taken since mid-December (courtesy of BET99), when then-deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation.
Canadian Election odds: Who will win the popular vote?
| Party | |
|---|---|
| Liberals | -175 |
| Conservatives | +110 |
Canadian Election odds: Will the Liberals win a majority?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Yes | -110 |
| No | -110 |
How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 170+ | +450 |
| 160-169 | +1000 |
| 150-159 | +600 |
| 140-149 | +600 |
| 130-139 | +350 |
| 120-129 | +325 |
| 110-119 | +700 |
| 100-109 | +2000 |
There are 338 seats in the House of Commons, and a party needs to win more seats than any other party to win the Canadian election. However, a party must win at least 170 seats to obtain a majority government.
With a majority government, the ruling party can enact legislation without needing to cooperate with opposition parties. In the 2015 federal election, Trudeau and the Liberals won a majority with 184 seats. However, that shifted to a minority government with 157 seats in 2019 and 160 in 2021.
Back on Jan. 7, election projections at PoliWave had the Conservatives dominating the election by winning a whopping 250 seats (80 more than needed for a majority government), with the Liberals falling behind the Bloc Quebecois and NDP with just 21 seats.
As recently as Feb. 28, PoliWave had the Conservatives at 168 and the Liberals at 132. That lead is long gone. As of April 10, PoliWave is projecting the Liberals to capture 189 seats, with the Conservatives' number at 123.
How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| 200+ | +250 |
| 190-199 | +425 |
| 180-189 | +400 |
| 170-179 | +700 |
| 160-169 | +450 |
| 150-159 | +550 |
| Under 150 | +750 |
How many seats will the NDP win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | -110 |
| Under 7.5 | -110 |
Much of the momentum for the Liberal Party has come at the expense of the NDP, who are projected to lose most of their 25 seats. With the Liberal Party tanking at the polls in December, many believed that the NDP would be able to siphon leftist voters.
But with the Liberals back in the lead, the NDP have plummeted and are projected to have their worst results in history. It doesn't help that former NDP leader Tom Mulcair encouraged leftist voters not to split the vote and advocated for a united front to combat the "existential crisis" facing the country.
As of April 15, National polling is projecting the NDP to win just five seats with a likely range of 1-13.
The NDP currently have 25 seats and have never finished with fewer than nine in an election since the party was formed in 1961. They've won at least 20 seats in the last six elections and peaked with 103 seats and official opposition status under Jack Layton in 2011.
An O/U of 7.5 seats seems crazy for a party that has long been the choice for many left-wing voters, especially considering the mixed messaging and poor results under Liberal leadership over the last several years.
How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Over 20.5 | +160 |
| Under 20.5 | -225 |
Where can I bet on Canadian election odds?
As the Canadian Federal election is a niche market, you may have to shop around to find a sportsbook that offers odds. Check out the best Canadian sportsbooks available where you live to see which election bets are available.
