New York City Mayor Election Odds: Mamdani Favored Despite Trump and Columbia Controversies

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Mamdani has surged past Cuomo after a dominant debate performance and endorsements from progressive leaders.

"It’s too soon to make a call, but what’s clear is that Mamdani’s victory wasn’t a fluke or protest vote," says Adin Lenchner, progressive campaign strategist at Carroll Street Campaigns. "It was a demonstration of real political power. His campaign wasn’t about playing it safe or triangulating; it was about showing up, being specific, and fighting for a city where working people aren’t pushed to the margins. If this race is about ideas, organizing, and turnout — it’s Mamdani’s to lose. He’s proving that you can run on substance and still dominate the narrative. The rest of the field is reacting to him. That tells you everything."

In the end, Mamdani wasn’t just victorious over Cuomo and the other candidates — he rewrote the playbook.

"This wasn’t just a win over a political establishment; it was a win powered by something deeper: a genuine sense of concern about how to make ends meet," Lenchner says.

"New Yorkers are exhausted — with rent they can’t afford, trains that are delayed and rerouted, streets that are ill-equipped to be kept safe, and a system that seems built to serve the rich and well connected. People are tired of broken promises and performative politics.

Mamdani offered something different: a clear-eyed, positive vision rooted in values, not fear and division. He’s perfectly singular for this moment — a candidate who understands the pain people are living through and has the trust, ideas, and a modern campaign to do something about it."

Mamdani’s rise

Backed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders, Mamdani’s progressive agenda—housing reform, free childcare, and transit expansion—has energized younger voters. His campaign has been strategic about ranked-choice voting (RCV), ensuring second- and third-choice support. His odds are buoyed by progressive momentum and effective ranked-choice strategy.

Cuomo’s decline

Despite big-name backing and financial muscle (Bloomberg’s PAC contributed over $8 million), Cuomo’s comeback bid has been marred by lingering controversies. While still a viable candidate, Kalshi users now see his path narrowing without cross-ideological support.

The former Governor is betting on name recognition and centrist appeal. Yet with scandal baggage and a primary loss looming, some speculate he may continue as an independent. That uncertainty weakens his odds.

Other candidates

Republican Curtis Sliwa, Independent Eric Adams, and reform lawyer Jim Walden round out the field, but all are long shots in heavily Democratic NYC.

Word on the street

Lenchner, for one, has kept his ear to the ground, and has heard a series of tremors throughout New York City since Mamdani's victory.

"There’s a not-so-quiet panic in parts of the establishment – whether that's the business community or some of the donors and traditional players in democratic politics," he explains. "Some folks assumed that Mamdani’s organizing model wouldn’t scale, or that New Yorkers wouldn’t vote for someone with his politics citywide. They were wrong — and now they’re scrambling to catch up."

Mamdani's rise is prompting genuine concern among his rivals.

"Behind the scenes, you’re hearing real questions: 'Can we build a campaign that can match his grassroots energy? Can we compete with that kind of organizing program? Do we have anyone who can generate that kind of authenticity?'" Lenchner says.

"The answer, in many cases, is no. Mamdani’s win wasn’t just ideological — it was infrastructural too. He showed what it looks like when the left has both values and muscle. And the folks who dismissed him as a protest candidate are starting to realize they’re the ones out of touch."

What is ranked-choice voting?

New York uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates. If no one earns over 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest candidate is eliminated, and ballots are redistributed based on the next preference. This continues until someone clears 50%.

Given NYC’s Democratic tilt, the winner of the primary often becomes the mayor, making June’s vote arguably more critical than November’s.

Political priorities are shifting in NYC

A lot has changed since the last mayoral race in the Big Apple, both politically and socially. 

"The last mayoral race was dominated by the fear and chaos of COVID-19, the novelty of ranked choice voting, and trying to capitalize on the instability that came from voter concerns of safety and a return to normalcy," Lenchner explains.

"In 2021, a lot of candidates rode to prominence on the idea that the city was out of control — and that only tough-on-crime centrism could save it. But that message has run out of steam.

People still care deeply about safety and affordability, but they’re looking for leaders who understand root causes and offer tangible, structural solutions. Mamdani did that — and voters rewarded it."

Mamdani's campaign has been rife with controversy 

Mamdani's rise to stardom hasn't been without its setbacks, including a pair of prominent controversies that have rapidly taken on a life of their own.

Mamdani scrutinized over college application

Mamdani is catching heat after a New York Times report revealed he identified as both “Asian” and “Black or African American” on his 2009 college application to Columbia University. Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian parents, said the application didn’t offer enough flexibility to describe his complex identity. He added “Ugandan” in the space for additional details and insisted it wasn’t about gaming the system, but rather trying to represent himself authentically. Columbia didn’t accept him, even though his father has been on the university’s faculty since 1999.

Conservative voices on Fox News and social media have slammed Mamdani, accusing him of misrepresenting himself for personal gain, with some even comparing the situation to the controversy around Elizabeth Warren’s Native American heritage claims. One pundit called him a “full-blown communist,” while others claimed he was trying to work the race-conscious admissions system, which the Supreme Court has since struck down.

Mamdani’s defenders say he was simply navigating a system that didn’t account for the nuance of mixed backgrounds, but for his opponents, the story fits neatly into a larger narrative of mistrust toward progressive candidates.

Mamdani and Trump tussle

In a startling escalation ahead of the general election, President Donald Trump publicly threatened to arrest Mamdani because the Assemblyman pledged to thwart federal immigration agents seeking deportations.

Trump denounced Mamdani as "a 100% Communist lunatic" and falsely insinuated he might be in the U.S. illegally, warning, "Well then, we’ll have to arrest him."

In response, Mamdani condemned the remarks as "an attack on our democracy" and a threat meant to silence New Yorkers who "refuse to hide in the shadows." He firmly declared: "We will not accept this intimidation."

The confrontation highlights the intensifying struggle between federal and local authority over immigration enforcement, and sets a confrontational tone for the campaign.

"Trump’s threats are absurd, but they’re also revealing," Lenchner notes. "They show just how nervous certain people are about a candidate like Mamdani — someone who’s not just talking about affordability and populism, but actually has the trust and coalition to deliver. It’s deeply ironic: Mamdani’s campaign is a real-world expression of many of the issues Trump pretended to care about — cost of living, working-class struggle, anti-elitism. The difference is that Mamdani’s campaign is rooted in authenticity with substantive ideas to deliver for the people being priced out and taken advantage of by those only looking out for their own bottom line."

Betting tips

Betting on politics isn’t just about picking a favorite—it’s about understanding momentum, mechanics, and timing. The 2025 NYC mayoral race is shaped not only by personalities and policies, but also by the quirks of ranked-choice voting and the behavior of informed bettors.

Whether you're placing your first political wager or looking to sharpen your edge, these tips can help you navigate the odds with confidence and insight.

• Follow RCV results: Elimination rounds and transfer ballots can upend early leads.
• Watch the Kalshi markets: Bettor behavior often moves faster than pollsters.
• Track endorsements: Late-stage backing could sway undecided voters or signal internal party shifts.
• Consider turnout swings: Weather and local events could boost or suppress key demographics.
• Keep an eye on the news: More controversies, like Mamdani's college application, could change the way he's perceived by the voters.