With club campaigns reaching their climax, the 2025 Ballon d’Or race is wide open.
While usual suspects like Mo Salah continue to deliver in decisive moments for Liverpool, fresh narratives are stealing the spotlight.
Raphinha has turned into Barcelona’s engine in the final third, while teenage sensation Lamine Yamal is rewriting records and redefining what’s possible at just 17.
As the spotlight shifts toward football’s highest individual honor, the Ballon d'Or odds paint a picture that favors the Spanish attacker.
Join me as I break down the soccer odds for the 2025 Ballon d'Or.
Ballon d'Or 2025 winner odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Lamine Yamal |
+150 |
| Raphinha |
+225 |
 Ousmane Dembélé |
+400 |
 Mohamed Salah |
+800 |
| Pedri |
+900 |
| Robert Lewandowski |
+1400 |
 Lautaro Martinez |
+1600 |
 Declan Rice |
+1600 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma |
+2000 |
Odds as of 5-2-25
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2025 Ballon d'Or favorite
Lamine Yamal Ballon d'Or odds
Lamine Yamal is the real deal. Every time he steps onto the pitch, he seems to break records. And as the Ballon d'Or favorite, he would be the youngest player to ever win the award, by over four years (Brazilian Ronaldo was 21 in 1997).
He was the youngest player to feature in last year's Euros, aged just 16 years and 338 days. And he even went as far as scoring in the semifinals against France, and lifting the trophy for Spain, which earned him UEFA's Young Player of the Tournament honors.
His play has been godly at times this year, between scoring world-class goals, setting up his teammates, and dazzling with his dribbling.
He's a large reason why Barcelona are knocking on the door of a potential treble.
He's the next best thing, and his name will be all over this list for years to come.
Who will win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
The list of candidates for the 2025 Ballon d'Or is long and filled with players with excellent qualities. If Yamala does not win it, here are a few players who may have a case:
Raphinha Ballon
There was a time not long ago when Barcelona fans were growing frustrated with Raphinha’s inconsistency.
But this season, the Brazilian winger has flipped the narrative, emerging as a driving force behind Barcelona’s success and a leading contender for individual honors as he guides his team into the Champions League semifinals.
Raphinha has racked up 12 goals in European competition and added 15 more in La Liga. He’s delivered in big moments, often changing games with a moment of brilliance, and he's a massive reason why Barcelona are pushing for titles on several fronts.
Ousmane Dembele
Speaking of bursting onto the scene, Ousmane Dembele is having a year to remember in the French capital.
The polarizing winger has PSG in the driver's seat for yet another Ligue 1 title, but more importantly, has the Parisians on the doorstep of the Champions League finals.
He's scored 32 goals in 43 matches in all competitions (and counting), and he's among the Top 10 in scoring this Champions League tournament.
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah is putting together one of the finest scoring seasons of his Premier League career — 28 goals in 34 matches and still counting.
But while individual brilliance matters, football's biggest accolades often hinge on team success. Liverpool’s early exits from the Champions League and domestic cups have dimmed the spotlight just enough to hurt his Ballon d'Or chances.
Salah has everything you’d want in a world-class forward — pace, precision, consistency. And yet, it’s entirely possible he could end his career without ever lifting the game’s most prestigious individual award.
What is the Ballon d'Or?
The Ballon d'Or (Golden Ball) is the world's most prestigious men's soccer honor, awarded every year by France Football magazine. The Ballon d'Or is given to the player, worldwide, judged to have had the best individual season both at club level, as well as for his country.
When is the Ballon d'Or awarded?
The Top 3 for the honor will be revealed in early September, with the winner announced at the 69th annual Ballon d'Or ceremony in Paris on Monday, October 27.
Previous winners of the Ballon d'Or
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Rodri |
| 2023 | Lionel Messi |
| 2022 | Karim Benzema |
| 2021 | Lionel Messi |
| 2019 | Lionel Messi |
| 2018 | Luka Modric |
| 2017 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2016 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2015 | Lionel Messi |
| 2014 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2013 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2012 | Lionel Messi |
| 2011 | Lionel Messi |
Ballon d'Or FAQs
Raphinha is the favorite at +125, with Mohamed Salah (+350) and Lamine Yamal (+400) in contention.
Lionel Messi has won the most Ballon d'Or trophies with eight, including three in the last five years.
Real Madrid and Barcelona lead the way with 12 winners each.
Soviet goalkeeper Lev Yashin (1963) remains the only goal keeper to win the award.
The Ballon d'Or will be awarded on Monday, October 27 at a soccer gala in Paris, France.
