UFC 318 takes place this evening from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, and it is headlined by Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier III.
While all eyes are on Poirier’s retirement fight, some of the best fights on the card in both entertainment and betting value can be found on the prelims.
Here are my best free UFC 318 preliminary picks and predictions from New Orleans.
UFC 318 prelim picks and predictions
Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov
• Prediction: Dulatov ML (-700)
• Best Bet: Dulatov KO (-150)
Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski
• Prediction: Spann ML (-220)
• Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-190)
Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen
• Prediction: Vettori ML (+165)
• Best Bet: Fight goes the distance (-280)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 318 prelim odds and picks
Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Fugitt | Dulatov |
| To win outright | +450 | -700 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1050 | -150 |
| To win by decision | +1150 | +790 |
| To win by submission | +1650 | +285 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 7-19.
Islam Dulatov has all of the things that Adam Fugitt doesn't do well against.
He's heavy-handed and has fluid footwork, meaning he can just as easily move out of Fugitt's range to grapple as he can to close the distance and put the pressure and punches on him. While we haven't seen how Dulatov does against someone who can take him to the ground, Fugitt is overmatched on the feet to the point where he'll need to put himself at an even bigger risk of being knocked out by trying to force him to the mat.
This figures to be a showcase fight for Dulatov, and Fugitt should play his part as expected. Dulatov will win, and my best bet for the fight is that he wins by stoppage.
Prediction: Dulatov moneyline (-700 at BET99)
Best Bet: Dulatov by KO (-150 at BET99)
Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Spann | Brzeski |
| To win outright | -260 | +195 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +150 | +365 |
| To win by decision | +975 | +1400 |
| To win by submission | +220 | +975 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 7-19.
Ryan Spann moves to heavyweight for this fight against the non-threatening - and winless in the UFC - Lukasz Brzeski. At light heavyweight, Spann was the ultimate glass cannon, in which he could fight like a man possessed with fight-ending power and aggressive submissions for about one round, and then his terrible cardio and weak chin would do him in.
For years, Spann has toiled among the mid-tier in light heavyweight and faced far better fighters than Brzeski. Spann's size and length make him a good fit for the division, and his explosive style won't get him in any trouble against a low-output, light-hitting heavyweight like Brezeski.
Spann is the pick, and just to be safe, my best bet is that the fight goes under 1.5 rounds.
Prediction: Spann moneyline (-220 at BET99)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-190 at BET99)
Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Vettori | Allen |
| To win outright | +160 | +210 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1100 | +900 |
| To win by decision | +275 | +105 |
| To win by submission | +1100 | +500 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 7-19.
Marvin Vettori is coming off a one-sided decision loss to Roman Dolidze, which followed a shoulder surgery that kept him out of the Octagon for almost two years. He subsequently looked flat and couldn't keep Dolidze at bay.
However, Brendan Allen is neither as aggressive nor as dangerous as Dolidze, and has failed to put it together to compete at the highest level of the division despite showing flashes of greatness. Vettori has fought some of the best the middleweight division has to offer and is the overall tougher fighter.
This fight should be closer to even, but it was a bit of a surprise to see Vettori, who has been a Top 5 middleweight for the last five years, as a decided underdog.
Neither Vettori nor Allen is known for their finishing abilities via striking or grappling, but I'm going with Vettori's established talent over Allen's potential. Vettori is the pick, and my best bet is that the fight goes the distance.
Prediction: Vettori moneyline (+165 at BET99)
Best Bet: Fight goes the distance (-280 at BET99)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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