Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC Fight Night is back in Abu Dhabi for the first time in 2025 as Bryce Mitchell and Said Nurmagomedov clash in a bantamweight bout.

“Thug Nasty” is making his bantamweight debut after losing two of his last three fights at featherweight, while Nurmagomedov looks to earn his first win in the octagon in over 20 months. UFC odds have Mitchell as the -150 favorite.

Keep reading for my Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, July 26.

Mitchell vs Nurmagomedov prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Nurmagomedov moneyline (+120 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+125 at BET99)

Fight analysis
We’ve got a classic grappler vs. striker matchup in this one with Bryce Mitchell coming in as the -150 favorite against Said Nurmagomedov, who hits back at +120.

You don’t often see fighters move down a weight class at age 30 after a relatively successful run, but that’s exactly what Mitchell is doing this weekend as he makes his bantamweight debut.

“Thug Nasty” has built a decent resume in the UFC with wins against solid names like Dan Ige and Edson Barboza, while his only losses in the promotion have come against Jean Silva, Josh Emmett, and Ilia Topuria.

Mitchell has built that resume almost solely off his grappling, and I’m expecting the same gameplan against Nurmagomedov. The Arkansas native has landed 27 takedowns in his UFC career — the fourth-most in lightweight history — and had a whopping 14 takedown attempts in that aforementioned loss to Silva.

Those takedown attempts actually came back to bite Mitchell in that bout vs. Silva as he got sloppy and left his neck exposed on several occasions. Silva had a couple guillotine attempts throughout the fight before finally securing the choke late in the second round.

While Nurmagomedov’s grappling isn’t as proficient as Mitchell’s, he’s actually finished three of his last four wins via guillotine or front choke — the exact same way Silva finished Mitchell. The Russian is quick to pounce on necks during takedowns and scrambles while he also boasts slick striking with plenty of spinning attacks — not too dissimilar from Silva.

Nurmagomedov should have an advantage on the feet and is arguably a more dangerous submission threat as well due to his ability to cinch the gilly from almost any position.

The line is close for a reason as this one’s pretty tough to pick, but I see Nurmagomedov landing more damage on the feet and having the clearer paths to a finish.

Best bet analysis
Mitchell was a lock to go the distance once upon a time but that trend has been reversed over the last few years. Each of his last three bouts ended in Under 2.5 rounds while that bet has cashed in four of his last five. He’s also been finished in all four of his defeats.

Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov has claimed a first or second round finish in four of his last five wins with three submissions and one knockout.

We know Mitchell is susceptible to getting submitted and Nurmagomedov is exactly the type of fighter who can take advantage of those weaknesses. There’s also the question of how Mitchell’s chin will hold up after dropping a weight class, especially since he was flatlined by Emmett just a year and a half ago.

Mitchell hasn’t had a submission win since 2019, but we know he’s got that in his arsenal as well with nine victories by sub to his name. This is arguably a step down in competition, so a vintage performance and finish is not out of the question for “Thug Nasty.”

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov odds

Method of Victory	Mitchell	Nurmagomedov
To win outright	-150	+120
To win by KO/TKO	+1650	+725
To win by decision	+165	+400
To win by submission	+390	+335
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 7-26.

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Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov tale of the tape

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