The New York Liberty took Game 1 on the road in overtime, but the Phoenix Mercury stormed back to take Game 2 at Barclays Center.
Tonight's standalone Game 3 is a winner-take-all matchup in the desert, with Phoenix entering as 2.5-point home favorites.
My Liberty vs. Mercury predictions expect Phoenix to take care of business thanks to productive scoring from the home team’s Big 3.
Read more in my WNBA picks for Friday, September 19.
Liberty vs Mercury predictions
My Liberty vs Mercury best bet: Mercury -2.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
I bet the Phoenix Mercury to win Game 2, and I’m taking them to win and cover again in Game 3 to close out this series and advance to the semifinals.
Despite performances far below their season-long standards, the Mercury held their own in Game 1, and it took overtime for the New York Liberty to win.
Phoenix responded with the largest road win in an elimination game in WNBA playoff history. The 86-60 victory in Game 2 also marked New York’s worst ever home playoff loss.
The victory was crucial for the Mercury to keep their season alive, and it marked the team’s first playoff win since 2021.
The Mercury hold all the momentum heading into Game 3, and they’ll get to play out the close-out matchup in front of the home crowd, providing another advantage. Phoenix covered in three of four head-to-head matchups with New York during the regular season, and New York sports a dreadful 16-28-2 mark ATS.
Breanna Stewart played through a sprained MCL in Game 2, limiting her to six points and two boards across 20 minutes. If she’s available for Game 3, she’ll surely be at less than 100%, and the loss of her two-way impact will be felt tremendously by New York.
I’m taking the Mercury to ride the momentum from Game 2 into a decisive victory on Friday.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury -2.5
Under 156
Kahleah Copper 10+ points
Alyssa Thomas 10+ points
Satou Sabally 10+ points
Each of the first two games of this series hit the Under, and these teams have hit the Under in four straight and seven of the last 10 dating back to the 2024 regular season.
New York went 1-7 to the Under to close out the regular season, and Phoenix went 2-6 in that span. I expect a better offensive showing from New York in Game 3, but I’m not betting the Over here.
Per The Arizona Republic, the Mercury went a perfect 13-0 during the regular season when all of their Big 3 of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Satou Sabally scored in double figures. Each scored at least 14 in the blowout Game 2 victory, but Sabally fell short of the mark in Game 1 with just nine points on 2-for-17 shooting.
I fully expect Phoenix to come away victorious in this one, and that will mean strong offensive play from the Big 3.
Liberty vs Mercury odds
Liberty vs Mercury live odds
Liberty vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: New York +2 (-110) | Phoenix -2 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York +115 | Phoenix -135
- Over/Under: Over 156 (-110) | Under 156 (-110)
Liberty vs Mercury trend
Phoenix has won two of three home matchups against New York this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.
How to watch Liberty vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, September 19, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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