Two WNBA powerhouses clash Friday night as the third-seeded Phoenix Mercury visit the second-seeded New York Liberty.
While Phoenix took the first two meetings this season, our Mercury vs. Liberty predictions back the defending champs to bounce back and grab the win on July 25.
Let's get into which star will guide the defending champs into the win column in our WNBA picks for Friday, July 25.
Mercury vs Liberty predictions
My Mercury vs Liberty best bet: Liberty -5.5 (-111 at Pinnacle)
The New York Liberty have reeled off four wins in a row, winning by at least nine in every contest, most recently completing a two-game home sweep of the Indiana Fever.
Jonquel Jones — who last played June 16, dealing with an ankle injury — returned last game, leading the team with 18 points and nine boards.
The Phoenix Mercury are currently running a two-game slide as they kick off a five-game road trip. A loss to the defending champs would send them to their first three-game losing streak on the season.
I get the books giving Phoenix some credit here, as they covered in New York as 11.5-point dogs and thumped the Liberty 106-91 last game on June 27. But Jones has played a total of nine minutes against Phoenix all year due to injury.
With her back to anchor the middle, New York has more balance and looks like the team that leads the WNBA in scoring. They’re 9-1 in the 10 games Jones has been in the lineup.
The Liberty are also 11-2 at home with a +12.5 point differential. New York gets back into this season series in a big way on Friday.
Mercury vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -6.5
Jonquel Jones Over 7.5 rebounds
Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 made threes
Jones is averaging 9.5 rebounds on the year, so that’s a gracious 7.5 rebounding line prop being offered. She’s grabbed at least eight rebounds in seven of 10 games this season.
Her presence inside should help Sabrina Ionescu get some better looks on the perimeter. She’s shooting just 5-for-25 from 3-point range against the Mercury this season, a rough 20% clip.
Still, Ionescu has hit three 3-pointers in a game against Phoenix once this season, and I like her to do it again, but with better efficiency Friday.
Mercury vs Liberty odds
Mercury vs Liberty live odds
Mercury vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +5.5 (-106) | New York -5.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +186 | New York -235
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 (-110) | Under 171.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Liberty trend
The Over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head matchups. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Liberty.
How to watch Mercury vs Liberty
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date | Friday, 7-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fubo Sports US, ION |
Mercury vs Liberty latest injuries
Mercury: None.
Liberty: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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