It took two days, but we now have a new pope. Plumes of white smoke emerged from the papal conclave in Vatican City on Thursday, signifying a candidate has secured the required two-thirds majority to succeed the late Pope Francis. And his identity is a bit of a shocker.
White smoke! The 133 Cardinal electors gathered in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel have elected the new Pope. He will appear soon at the central window of St. Peter’s Basilica. pic.twitter.com/XejI7mY43m
— Vatican News (@VaticanNews) May 8, 2025
Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost from the United States has become the 267th Pope of the Catholic Church and will serve under the name Leo XIV. Prevost was not among the Top 5 favorites on most betting sites when the conclave began and had an implied probability of just 2% at Kalshi earlier on Thursday morning.
Born in Chicago in 1955, Prevost earned degrees in mathematics, divinity, and canon law, and began his religious career as a missionary in Peru, where he served in various leadership roles and eventually became a naturalized citizen. He rose through the ranks of the Augustinian order to become its global leader and was later appointed bishop of Chiclayo in Peru. His leadership and deep pastoral experience led Pope Francis to name him prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops in 2023, followed by his elevation to cardinal later that year.
Prevost’s election as pope marks a historic milestone, as he becomes the first American to lead the Catholic Church. Known for his diplomatic skill, administrative experience, and global perspective shaped by years of missionary work, Pope Leo XIV is expected to carry forward the reformist and inclusive vision championed by his predecessor, Pope Francis. His papacy is seen as a bridge between continents and cultures, reflecting the Church's increasingly global character and its ongoing efforts to address internal challenges while engaging with the modern world.
Habemus Papam! We have a Pope!
— Vatican News (@VaticanNews) May 8, 2025
The Cardinals gathered in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel have elected Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the 267th Pope, who took the name Pope Leo XIV. pic.twitter.com/7COawsKvWu
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🕊️ Next pope odds
Kalshi currently had Italy’s Pietro Parolin as the favorite, with a 30% chance of becoming the next pope. Here is an updated list of prices from Kalshi from Thursday morning.
- Pietro Parolin: 30%
- Luis Antonio Tagle: 26%
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 10%
- Matteo Zuppi: 8%
- Peter Turkson: 6%
- Peter Erdo: 6%
- Jean-Marc Aveline: 4%
- Fridolin Ambongo: 2%
- Robert Sarah: 2%
- Robert Prevost: 2%
- Mario Grech: 2%
- Dominique Mamberti: 2%
- Pablo Virgilio David: 2%
Cardinal Pietro Parolin was widely regarded as a frontrunner to become the next pope due to his deep experience in Vatican diplomacy and his role as Secretary of State under Pope Francis. Over the past decade, he has become one of the most influential figures in the Roman Curia, playing a key role in negotiations with nations such as China and Cuba. His diplomatic finesse and calm demeanor have earned him the respect of many within the Church, and his ability to navigate sensitive geopolitical issues makes him a strong candidate to lead a global institution like the Catholic Church.
Parolin's moderate stance also positions him well in a Church often divided between conservative and progressive factions. He is viewed as a centrist, someone who could offer continuity with Pope Francis’ vision without alienating traditionalists. His Italian heritage could also work in his favor, as it aligns with the long-standing tradition of Italian popes, and his fluency in multiple languages adds to his appeal as a leader who can unify a global and multicultural Church.
Still, Parolin is not without his critics. Some have voiced concerns about the controversial Vatican-China agreement he helped broker, arguing it compromises religious freedom. Others view him as a cautious bureaucrat who lacks the charisma of recent popes. Nonetheless, with his institutional knowledge, diplomatic expertise, and broad appeal among cardinals, Parolin remains one of the most likely successors to Pope Francis.
✝️ Next pope opening odds
Here is a look at next pope odds from Sports Interaction, as they stood ahead of the start of the papal conclave:
- Pietro Parolin (+225)
- Luis Antonio Tagle (+300)
- Matteo Maria Zuppi (+600)
- Peter Turkson (+700)
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+800)
- Peter Erdo (+1000)
- Robert Sarah (+1600)
- Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+2000)
- JM Aveline (+2000)
- Raymond Leo Burke (+3300)
- Reinhard Marx (+4000)
- M. Bychok (+4000)
- Timothy Dolan (+5000)
- Kevin Farrell (+5000)
- M. Gambetti (+5000)
- Timothy Radcliffe (+5000)
- Joseph William Tobin (+5000)
- Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (+6600)
- Christoph Schonborn (+6600)
- Angelo De Donatis (+6600)
- Angelo Scola (+6600)
- Sean Patrick O’Malley (+6600)
- William Ejik (+6600)
- Willem Eijk (+6600)
- Konrad Krajewski (+6600)
⛪ New pope odds favorites
Here is a look at new pope odds favorites as they stood on Thursday morning:
Pietro Parolin (+250)
Many Catholics are wondering if the cardinals in charge of electing a new pope will go with a candidate who is more aligned with right wing-thinking than pope Francis was.
Pietro Parolin is not viewed as a radical right or a radical left thinker. The former Secretary of State of the Vatican is considered a moderate candidate and is being hailed by many as the “safe choice” to become the new pope.
Luis Antonio Tagle (+275)
Luis Antonio Tagle is from the Philippines and has been dubbed the “Asian Francis” due to his alignment with Pope Francis' empathetic views towards the poor and oppressed.
Tagle has been criticized for not having a strong enough tone, however, and he is seen as often trying to be too “politically correct.”
The cardinals electing a pope from Asia over Europe would be seen as an upset in most circles, so it is somewhat surprising to see Tagle so high up on pope odds boards.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+500)
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa is considered a leading candidate for the papacy due to his unique combination of pastoral experience, diplomatic skill, and interfaith engagement. As the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, he has spent decades navigating the complex religious and political landscape of the Middle East, earning respect across diverse communities. Notably, in 2023, he offered himself in exchange for Israeli children taken hostage by Hamas, demonstrating profound compassion and courage.
Matteo Maria Zuppi (+750)
Matteo Maria Zuppi is another candidate for pope that would be viewed as a continuation of Pope Francis’s progressive ways. Zuppi has been the Archbishop of Bologna since 2015. He has anchored many of the Vatican’s most sensitive missions in recent years, including reuniting families in Ukraine.
📆 When is the papal conclave?
The papal conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis is scheduled to commence on Wednesday, May 7, 2025 in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican. A total of 133 cardinal electors under the age of 80 will participate in this highly secretive process to choose the 267th pope.
The voting process requires a two-thirds majority to elect a new pope. Cardinals will cast their votes in multiple rounds each day—two in the morning and two in the afternoon—until a consensus is reached. The duration of the conclave is uncertain, but it is expected to last several days.
This conclave is notable for its diversity, with participants representing 71 countries, making it the most geographically varied in Church history.
❔ What are the primary issues the new pope will need to address?
The incoming pontiff faces a complex array of challenges, including uniting a Church divided between progressive and traditionalist factions, addressing the legacy of clerical sexual abuse, and navigating the Church's role in global issues like climate change and migration. Additionally, there's an expectation for the new pope to continue or reassess Pope Francis's initiatives on inclusivity and synodality
Additional new pope markets
Pope odds markets do not stop at just “Who will be the next pope?” Here are more new pope odds to consider:
What country will the new pope be from?
Here are the percentage chances at Kalshi for “what country will the new pope be from?” Italy is the favorite at 52%, which is not surprising considering favorites Pietro Parolin and Matteo Maria Zuppi are from “The Boot."
- Italy 52%
- Philippines 19%
- Hungary 8%
- Ghana 7%
- Algeria 6%
- United States 3%
What day will the new pope be named?
Kalshi also has a market on what day the new pope will be named.
- Before May 9: 58%
- Before May 16: 95%
- Before June 1: 97%
How many rounds will it take to elect the new Pope?
At the papal conclave this week, one round of voting will be held Wednesday. Starting Thursday, there will be four rounds per day until a new pope is named. Here is a look at Kalshi’s percentage chances for how many rounds it will take to elect the next pope.
- 3-4 rounds: 19%
- 5-6 rounds: 36%
- 7-8 rounds: 24%
- 9-10 rounds: 16%
- 11-14 rounds: 7%
- 15-19 rounds: 6%
- 20 rounds or above: 5%
Read our next pope name odds for more in-depth analysis and coverage.
