The Truist Championship checks in as the sixth signature event of the 2025 season, and Philadelphia Cricket Club is playing host to a PGA Tour event for the first time.
Master champion Rory McIlroy is a clear betting favorite in the Truist Championship odds, and I’ve got a handful of golf picks to complement the action in Philly this week.
Golf picks for the Truist Championship 2025
- Fleetwood to win outright (+3000 at FanDuel)
- Conners to win outright (+3200 at bet365)
- Burns Top 30 (-114 at Caesars)
- Novak Top 30 (-112 at Caesars)
- Morikawa Round 1 Top 20 (+100 at bet365)
Truist Championship outright picks
Outright pick: Tommy Fleetwood
+3000 at FanDuel
PGA Tour win no. 1 is coming for Tommy Fleetwood, and he’s made 18 consecutive worldwide cuts while ranking fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third on approach.
He’s also carded seven Top-10 finishes during the run, including his solo seventh in a loaded RBC Heritage field.
Additionally, Fleetwood has gained true strokes on the greens in five of his past seven events, and with the ball-striking doing the heavy lifting, he’ll be right there on Sunday if he rolls it well again this week.
Outright pick: Corey Conners
+3200 at bet365
I’m largely chalking Corey Conners finishing T49 in the RBC Heritage up to a Masters letdown following his T8 at Augusta National.
It was the Canadian’s sixth consecutive Top 25, including a solo third at the Arnold Palmer and another three Top 10s. Conners impressively gained true strokes across the board during the six-tourney heater while ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 15th in true strokes gained putting, and fifth in driving accuracy.
Truist Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Sam Burns Top 30
-114 at Caesars
Following a quiet start to the year, it appears Sam Burns is turning the corner with a higher finish in three consecutive events, including his T5 last week in the Byron Nelson.
The five-time PGA Tour winner has struggled with his ball-striking, and his -0.41 true strokes gained per round on approach and -0.18 tee-to-green are way below last year’s respective +0.28 and +0.72 marks.
Burns was better in both metrics last week, so if that continues, his putter will do the heavy lifting because he paces this field in true strokes gained putting for the year.
Finishing position pick: Andrew Novak Top 30
-112 at Caesars
Andrew Novak took last week off following his first career PGA Tour victory in the team event at the Zurich Classic, and he preceded the win with a solo second at the RBC Heritage and a T3 at the Valero Texas Open.
The support numbers impress, too. Novak ranks fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in putting during the three-event heater.
Additionally, he ranks above average in both adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance while pacing the PGA Tour in putts per round this season. Safe to say, he’s dialed in.
Truist Championship first-round pick
Finishing position pick: Collin Morikawa Top 20
+100 at bet365
Philadelphia Cricket Club should fit Collin Morikawa’s game, and he enters ranking 14th in adjusted scoring average, fourth in birdie-or-better percentage, and eighth in bogey avoidance on the PGA Tour this season.
The two-time major champion has also gained true strokes across the board, ranking second in tee-to-green play, first on approach, and fourth in driving accuracy.
Truist Championship odds
- Rory McIlroy: +450
- Collin Morikawa: +1400
- Xander Schauffele: +1600
- Justin Thomas: +1600
- Ludvig Aberg: +1600
- Patrick Cantlay: +2000
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2500
- Jordan Spieth: +2500
- Viktor Hovland: +2800
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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