Few sporting events have a richer legacy than the Kentucky Derby, which has been delighting fans since 1875, when the inaugural "Run for the Roses" took place at Churchill Downs. Although the first leg of the Triple Crown has retained much of its storied past, it has also embraced advances in technology over the years. Weather tracking, gate sensors, and health monitoring have all had a profound impact on the way the "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" is run.
It's in the spirit of these advances that we've added a new layer of technology to how we cover today's race: Artificial Intelligence. We've tapped into the enormous computing power of ChatGPT to find out which three-year-old thoroughbred will finish first in horse racing's most prestigious event.
We provided everyone's favorite chatbot with key details about this year's Kentucky Derby horses including speed figures, pedigree analysis, and post positions as well as comprehensive trainer and jockey stats. We even had ChatGPT consult long-range weather forecasts to consider how track conditions could enhance – or hinder – the race.
It considered the data carefully and, within a matter of seconds, provided us with Kentucky Derby Win, Place, and Show predictions as well as two enticing long shot picks. The results were far from shocking, but the level of detail was impressive just the same.
The content below has been edited for clarity, length, and accuracy.
🏇 2025 Kentucky Derby Win, Place, Show predictions
🥇 Win: Journalism (3-1)
The Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the 3-1 morning-line favorite for good reason. This Curlin-sired colt swept California’s major prep races (Los Alamitos Futurity, San Felipe Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby), displaying both high cruising speed and a strong finishing kick. He has consistently earned elite speed figures (Beyer Speed Figures around the 102–108 range in recent starts) that rank at the top of this field. His San Felipe performance was particularly impressive – he rallied from just off the pace to win convincingly, suggesting he will relish the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance.
Trained by Michael McCarthy (a former Preakness-winning assistant who seeks his first Derby win) and piloted by Umberto Rispoli, Journalism brings professionalism and versatility. Experts widely view him as the horse to beat.
Overall, Journalism’s dominant prep campaign and tactical adaptability make him the top pick to win the Run for the Roses.
🥈 Place: Sovereignty (5-1)
Sovereignty, a talented colt from Bill Mott’s barn, is a major threat who profiles as the likely Place (2nd) finisher at about 5-1 odds. He had one of the strongest prep resumes of any contender: after winning the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes with a furious late charge, he confirmed his quality by closing for a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby (behind only Tappan Street). Notably, Sovereignty already owns a stakes victory at Churchill Downs – as a two-year-old he powered from last to first in the Street Sense Stakes, drawing off by 5 lengths and defeating future Derby rivals Sandman and Tiztastic in the process. This demonstrates his affinity for the track and underscores his potent closing style.
Sovereignty will break from post 18, but that wide draw shouldn’t be a hindrance – he typically drops back early, avoiding traffic, and then unleashes a big sustained rally. With jockey Junior Alvarado in the irons and Mott looking for another Derby win, Sovereignty is expected to be charging hard in the final furlong. His consistency and strong finishing ability make him very likely to hit the board, with a great shot at second if the favorite falters late.
🥉 Show: Sandman (6-1)
The Arkansas Derby hero Sandman is our Show pick, though he’s a genuine win contender in his own right. This gray son of Gun Runner has been improving dramatically with each race – his speed figures climbed in each prep, and he delivered a breakout performance at Oaklawn.
In the Arkansas Derby, Sandman erased a 13-length deficit to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths. He rocketed through his final furlong in about 12.2 seconds, an eye-popping closing split that showcases his explosive late speed. That effort earned him a 99 Beyer and 104 Equibase Speed Figure, essentially matching the best number posted by favorite Journalism – proof that Sandman on his best day is as fast as any horse in this field. One slight historical knock is his post position: Sandman drew post 17, from which no Derby winner has ever emerged. However, his deep-closing running style could turn that wide post into an advantage, allowing him to stay clear of early traffic and pick off horses in the stretch.
Top jockey Jose Ortiz (a past Belmont Stakes winner) will pilot Sandman, and trainer Mark Casse has reported excellent training workouts at Churchill leading up to the race. If a swift early pace unfolds, look for Sandman to be flying late – he has the finishing power to secure a top-three finish and could even threaten for the win with a perfect trip.
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🐴 Dark horse candidates to watch
Luxor Café (15-1)
This Japanese contender brings a four-race winning streak, including a victory over UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona. His pedigree includes Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Tiztastic (20-1)
Winner of the Louisiana Derby, Tiztastic has shown the ability to handle longer distances and could capitalize on a fast pace.
Can AI beat the odds?
While AI provides data-driven insights, the Kentucky Derby often defies expectations. Factors like race-day conditions, crowd noise, and horse temperament can influence outcomes. Be sure to check our Kentucky Derby odds analysis and the carefully-crafted picks from our in-house experts before wagering on the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby betting resources
- Kentucky Derby Win, Place, Show predictions
- Kentucky Derby AI predictions
- Kentucky Derby post positions
- How to bet on the Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Trifecta, Superfecta & Exacta predictions
Additional betting tips
Here are some additional tips to keep in mind to get the biggest bang for your buck:
- Exacta bets: Use Journalism and Sovereignty in an exacta box to cover multiple outcomes (1st and 2nd place in any order).
- Trifecta plays: Try a trifecta keying Journalism on top, with Sovereignty, Sandman, and a few longshots underneath.
- Superfecta value: Include a dark horse like Rodriguez or Luxor Café in the 4th spot to boost payouts.
- Weather hedge: If rain looks likely, lean slightly more on horses with proven off-track success.
- Bet light and have fun: The Derby is notoriously chaotic — enjoy the action, and don't overextend your bankroll!
👀 Key race factors to watch for on Saturday
One of the key dynamics in this year’s race will be the pace scenario. A fast early tempo could create ideal conditions for late-charging horses like Sandman and Sovereignty, who thrive when the leaders tire down the stretch. Their running styles make them particularly dangerous if the front-runners push each other too hard in the opening furlongs.
Track conditions may also play a pivotal role, with rain in the forecast potentially softening the surface. Horses with proven form on wet or muddy tracks could gain a significant edge if the weather turns. Additionally, post position draws should not be overlooked. Historically, horses breaking from the inside posts (1-3) have struggled to find racing room, whereas those starting from the middle to outside gates have tended to fare better.
