The first Saturday of May is almost here. For thoroughbred horse racing fans throughout North America and the rest of the world, that only means one thing: The Kentucky Derby is just a few short days away.
If the Super Bowl is the roaring coliseum where modern gladiators forge legacies in fire and frenzy, then the Kentucky Derby is the hallowed ground where three-year-old phantoms of speed blur past in a breathless, rose-strewn waltz. Their triumph is etched in gold, their defeat swallowed by the wind.
While these horses (and the people who ride, train, and own them) prep their equine athletes, bettors turn over every rock to find an advantage in the parimutuel wagering.
That's where we can help with our early Kentucky Derby predictions based on the post draw.
The draw determines where each horse will start once it reaches the starting gate. Since the Kentucky Derby field is so large, drawing well is crucial if the horse's connections want to have any chance of winning the race.
Kentucky Derby prediction: Sandman to win
Like the thrash-metal anthem that inspired his name, the grey-coated Sandman (6-1) divides opinion sharply: some bettors embrace him as the dark horse of the 151st Kentucky Derby, while others dismiss the idea outright. There’s no middle ground. But I'm firmly in the camp that believes Sandman can capture the roses.
This $1.2 million gray colt by Gun Runner, the sire of 2022 Derby runner-up Cyberknife, and out of a Tapit mare, boasts a pedigree perfectly suited for the grueling 1¼-mile distance. Tapit’s offspring have long excelled in stamina-demanding races, and Gun Runner adds the tactical speed that can make all the difference in a chaotic Derby.
Sandman’s recent performances also back up his promise: his Brisnet speed figures have steadily climbed from 91 in the Southwest Stakes to 95 in the Rebel and then an impressive 101 in the Arkansas Derby. That kind of upward trajectory is exactly what bettors want to see.
In fact, in the Arkansas Derby, Sandman erased a daunting 13-length deficit to win by 2½ lengths, earning a 99 Beyer Speed Figure and a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, matching the peak number posted by Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism.
Sandman's closing fraction for the final eighth of a mile was an astonishing 12.2 seconds, according to the Daily Racing Form. Meaning, when he gets "set down for the drive," he can run as fast as the best of 'em.
Sandman sighting 👀 pic.twitter.com/hyffHLVOT1
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 27, 2025
While post 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner, this wide outside draw actually plays to Sandman’s strengths as a deep closer. It allows him to avoid the traffic jams that often trap horses closer to the rail, giving one of the top jockeys in the world, Jose Ortiz, the space to time his late charge perfectly. Of course, a lot can go wrong in the moments between, but if there was ever a horse that could handle this post draw, it's Sandman
Judging by the numbers, trainer Mark Casse, the winningest trainer in Woodbine history, has prepared Sandman meticulously at Churchill Downs, with recent works of :49.60 for four furlongs and 1:02.40 for five furlongs, both faster than the typical Derby prep times.
If the early pace of the Derby exceeds the Brisnet par of 48.5 seconds for the half-mile, Sandman’s combination of pedigree, improving speed figures, and tactical adaptability could make him the most credible mild-longshot since Always Dreaming’s 2017 upset.
If the price stays close to his morning line odds or goes higher, I can't see a much better bet on the board.
Kentucky Derby pick: Sandman (6-1 at FanDuel Racing)
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Kentucky Derby longshot predictions
Rodriguez
Rodriguez is entering the 151st Kentucky Derby as a strong contender, especially with his front-running style, following an impressive victory in the Wood Memorial (G2), where he finished 3½ lengths ahead of the competition.
While winning the Wood Memorial is no longer considered the significant achievement it once was, horses backed by connections like Rodriguez's still deserve a couple ounces of respect.
Trained by the renowned, and somewhat controversial Bob Baffert, who has won the Derby six times, and ridden by one of the top jockeys of his era, Mike Smith, the dark bay colt is starting from post position 4. Baffert believes this is a better position than being stuck on the inside, although it's still not an ideal spot.
Rodriguez's ability to run at the front, combined with his solid stamina, strong pedigree, and experience in graded stakes at 1⅛ miles, puts him in a competitive position. However, some analysts, like Randy Moss, caution that the fast pace expected in the Derby could challenge his speed.
Nevertheless, if he can manage to post reasonable fractions and employ Smith’s strategic tactics, he could finish strongly provided he avoids getting involved in early battles.
If his 12-1 odds hold, he could be a good option to include in your exotic bets.
Kentucky Derby longshot pick: Rodriguez (12-1 at FanDuel Racing)
Final Gambit
Final Gambit is a high-risk, high-reward contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He showcased a powerful late kick in his 3½-length Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) victory, where he rallied from 12th place to finish first on synthetic turf.
Trained by Brad Cox and bred by Juddmonte Farms, Final Gambit has a stamina-rich pedigree. He is sired by Not This Time, who has produced dirt stars like Epicenter, and his dam comes from the Tapit line, indicating some decent potential for classic-distance races.
Although he has never raced on dirt, his recent bullet workouts indicate he is prepared for the transition. He also possesses tactical versatility, being capable of both stalking the pace and closing strong, which is an advantage given the Kentucky Derby's often chaotic tempo.
However, there are concerns: his 90 Beyer Speed Figure from the Jeff Ruby Stakes is lower than those of top contenders, and it remains uncertain whether he can handle the kickback from the Churchill Downs dirt.
If the anticipated fast pace develops, his deep-closing running style—similar to past longshot finishers—could earn him a place or show payout at odds of 30-1.
Kentucky Derby longshot pick: Final Gambit (30-1 at FanDuel Racing)
2025 Kentucky Derby odds
Horses are listed here by their Kentucky Derby odds set by Churchill Downs, with their Kentucky Derby post positions on the left.
| Post | Horse | * |
** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Journalism | +300 | 3-1 | +275 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | +500 | 5-1 | +600 |
| 17 | Sandman | +600 | 6-1 | +1100 |
| 4 | Rodriguez | +1200 | 12-1 | +1400 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | +1500 | 15-1 | +900 |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 10 | Grande | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 12 | East Avenue | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 13 | Publisher | +2000 | 20-1 | +3300 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 2 | Neoequos | +3000 | 30-1 | +6600 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | +3000 | 30-1 | +1600 |
| 5 | American Promise | +3000 | 30-1 | +2500 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | +3000 | 30-1 | +4000 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | +3000 | 30-1 | +5000 |
| 15 | Render Judgement | +3000 | 30-1 | +10000 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | +3000 | 30-1 | +2500 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | +3000 | 30-1 | +4000 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | +3000 | 30-1 | +5000 |
| AE 21 | Baeza | +3000 | 30-1 | +1400 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 Kentucky Derby odds are not available in the United States
