For the first time since sportsbooks released odds on American League division winners, the New York Yankees are no longer the favorites to capture the AL East title.
Key Takeaways
- Yankees have fallen from a -1,100 favorite to +165 to win the AL East behind a surging Toronto squad.
- The Blue Jays have won 19 of their last 24 games and are as high as a -175 favorite to win the division at FanDuel.
- New York is in the process of upgrading its roster before next week’s trade deadline.
A combination of average to poor play by New York over the last two months and the surging Toronto Blue Jays has shaken up the future odds market and the AL East standings. The Yankees, who began the season as a +145 favorite at BetMGM to win the division, reached odds of -1,100, shortest of the year, in early June.
When they woke up Friday morning, they found themselves 4.5 games back of the Blue Jays, the largest deficit of the season, and no longer the division’s odds leader. Toronto, which got as low as +1,800 in June, is now a -175 favorite to win the AL East.
“On June 1, the Yankees had a 5.5 game lead. July 1, it was a 1-game lead, and now they’re 4.5-games back,” BetMGM data analyst John Ewing told Covers on Friday. “The odds to win the division reflect the changes in the standings. Blue Jays are currently the favorites to win the AL East, but there is a lot of baseball left, which gives the Yankees (+165) a chance to win the division.”
AL East odds leaders
Heading into Wednesday’s series finale against the Blue Jays (61-42 record), New York (56-46) was still listed as a -125 favorite at FanDuel. However, following their seventh loss in 10 games to Toronto and an easy win by the Blue Jays over Detroit on Thursday, the Yankees dropped to +170. Toronto surged ahead to -185.
ESPN BET has the Blue Jays as a -160 favorite with New York second at +150. DraftKings has the closest odds among several online operators in the differential between the two AL teams, with Toronto at -125 and the Yankees +125 in the division winner market.
The Blue Jays are currently sitting at the top of the American League and it's the first time they have led the AL this late into the season since 2015 😳
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) July 25, 2025
🔵 TOR to win AL East (-160)
🔵 TOR to win AL Pennant (+500)
🔵 TOR to win World Series (+1400) pic.twitter.com/iVb75aqsWa
Boston is in third place, just two games back of New York, but ESPN BET has the Red Sox at +1,500 to win the division. The Tampa Bay Rays (+2,500) are eight games back from the Blue Jays, while last-place Baltimore (+25,000) is 15.5 games back.
| Sportsbook | Blue Jays Odds | Yankees Odds |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -185 | +170 |
| BetMGM | -175 | +165 |
| Caesars | -160 | +170 |
| ESPN BET | -160 | +150 |
| bet365 | -150 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -125 | +125 |
How did they get here?
New York was the +150 odds leader when the division winner market first opened at BetMGM, and the Yankees spent 100 days in first place, looking like the team to beat.
The Bronx Bombers got off to a solid start, winning 18 of their first 31 games. They ended April around -135 to win the division and were getting more than 40% of the handle at BetMGM. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays had a losing record after the first month of the season, and at +900, less than 7% of the market’s money was on Toronto.
After posting a 17-9 record in May, New York made a steady climb to -650 late in the month. Following two wins to start June, the Yankees moved to their shortest odds of the season, and they were 17 games over .500, the most this season, on June 12.
However, losses began to pile up in bunches. They dropped six consecutive games from June 13-18 and then lost another six straight between June 30 and July 5, including a four-game sweep by the Blue Jays.
New York’s woes have continued through the All-Star break as the team has lost five of its last eight games, including two of three against the Blue Jays earlier this week. Toronto, meanwhile, took advantage of those Yankees swoons with a streak of its own. The Blue Jays have won 19 of their last 24 games. It’s been a huge turnaround for a team that had a losing record at the end of April and then lost four of six to begin May.
The Jays ended that month two games above .500, won 16 out of 26 in June, and have gone 15-4 in July. Toronto has outscored its opponents 115-73 this month on its way to the first-place lead in the division.
Fight to the finish
The Blue Jays haven’t won the AL East since 2015. New York has claimed the division title in two of the last three years and 16 times over the last 29 seasons.
With 60 games to play in the 2025 regular season, the Yankees won’t go quietly. MLB’s trade deadline is July 31 at 6 p.m. ET. New York already acquired third baseman Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies on Friday, addressing a major need.
Yankees reportedly acquire 3B Ryan McMahon from the Rockies per multiple reports including MLB's @Feinsand. pic.twitter.com/tSkBwyi194
— MLB (@MLB) July 25, 2025
The Yankees likely aren’t done. The pitching staff is down two starters from the beginning of the season. The team could be in the market for multiple arms to strengthen the rotation and bullpen.
The Yankees begin a three-game series with the NL East’s Philadelphia Phillies on Friday as a -150 favorite on the moneyline. The Blue Jays (-105) head into the second of a four-game series with the Tigers.
