The 151st Kentucky Derby already faced an uphill climb to top the history and handle of the 150th Run for the Roses, and ongoing economic turmoil won’t make it any easier.
Key takeaways
- This year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby, North America's biggest horse race, is this weekend.
- The 150th Derby smashed previous wagering records.
- Derby-owner Churchill Downs expects “comparable” results to last year’s event, but there are economic challenges that didn’t exist in 2024.
Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI) reported business results last week for the quarter ended March 31. It also sprinkled in some thoughts about this year's Kentucky Derby, which will be held on Saturday in Louisville.
CDI CEO Bill Carstanjen told analysts and investors during a conference call Thursday that he expected the results of this year’s Derby, the 151st, to be “comparable” to the record-setting 150th.
This was a bit less bullish than previous expectations. Jefferies analyst David Katz wrote in a note to clients Friday that the Derby owner's talk of similar results is “dialed back from prior commentary with modest growth [year-over-year].”
'A tough comp'
Still, part of the reason for the relatively modest outlook could be last year’s Derby produced what Carstanjen called a “significant uptick” in the company’s financial metrics for the event.
For example, wagering on the Derby alone was a new $210.7 million record, blowing away the previous $188.7 million high. CDI also reported an “all-time record” Derby Week contribution to its adjusted EBITDA last year.
Carstanjen said last week the “comparability” of which he spoke about this year's Derby versus last was primarily related to adjusted EBITDA. However, other metrics could be comparable as well.
“I think you'll see some higher and some lower, but across all of them comparable,” the CEO said during the call.
Yet this year’s Derby also comes as CDI is seeing some “hesitancy” from American consumers. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade tactics are at least partly to blame for that looming sense of economic uncertainty.
Now, the historic nature of the 150th Derby and the cloudier economic backdrop have become something of a double whammy for CDI and the race's 151st edition.
“The company faces a tough comp with the running of the 150th last year, and we get the sense, speaking with management, that consumer ‘hesitancy,’ which was mentioned seven times on the call, could be viewed as a negative driver of pricing in the month leading into the Derby,” Citizens analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a note to clients.
Post Positions for the 151st Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve. pic.twitter.com/CGyJn9rmy2
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 26, 2025
That greater economic uncertainty was reflected in CDI’s recently announced decision to hit the pause button on an approximately $900-million project at the Churchill Downs racetrack.
The reasoning for this, the company said, was “the increasing uncertainty surrounding construction costs related to tariff and trade disputes as well as current macroeconomic conditions.”
How or if that uncertainty affects overall wagering on Kentucky Derby odds this Saturday remains to be seen. Much of the betting on the race will happen online, away from the track.
“We see growth in wagering, we see growth in sponsorships,” Carstanjen said at one point during Thursday’s call. “We see smart growth in ticketing based on improving the experiences and yielding those experiences over time. So nothing's changed.”
Even so, investors have been harsh on CDI since the first-quarter results were announced. Shares of the company are down more than 13% compared to last week.
However, while economic uncertainty might weigh more on people deciding whether or not to shell out the cash for a visit to Churchill Downs, Carstanjen told analysts and investors to expect a “packed house” at the track this weekend.
“We've seen a difference in the lower-end ticket sales for Derby,” Carstanjen said. “That's a fact. We've seen a difference, but the demand is so strong for the event that it's not going to show up when you see the crowds or anything like that.”
The CDI CEO added he didn’t think the economic climate would affect the Derby “in any material way.”
