Friday marks the start of new matchups across the country, which gives us a full slate of MLB player props and home run picks to choose from tonight.
I’m backing Juan Soto and two other superstars to go deep in my free MLB picks for Friday, April 18.
Best MLB home run props today
Juan Soto (+350 at FanDuel)
Jose Altuve (+500 at FanDuel)
Mike Trout (+475 at BetMGM)
HR picks for April 18
Juan Soto (+350 at FanDuel)
Juan Soto got off to a relatively slow start with the New York Mets, hitting .250 with just one homer in his first 15 games after moving crosstown. However, the 26-year-old outfielder seemed to find his power in Minnesota earlier this week, homering in consecutive games on Monday and Tuesday.
That sudden change may be more about how other teams are approaching the Mets than any change made by Soto. While opponents pitched around Soto frequently to start the year, they’re no longer able to ignore Pete Alonso, who is leading the National League with a .687 slugging percentage. As a result, more pitchers are taking their chances with Soto rather than moving on to face Alonso.
Soto has a solid matchup against veteran St. Louis Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas, who has historically been vulnerable to the longball. While Mikolas hasn’t allowed a dinger this year, he has given up 1.1 home runs per nine innings for his career.
This is a good spot for Soto to continue his recent power surge.
Jose Altuve (+500 at FanDuel)
We don’t usually think of Jose Altuve as a slugger, but the Houston Astros star has hit 232 homers in his outstanding career. He’s already gone deep three times in his first 18 games this season, and Altuve has hit at least 20 home runs in each of his last four reasonably complete seasons.
That makes him the kind of player that is worth targeting for a home run prop when we can find the right matchup and get the best odds possible. We have just that situation tonight, as Altuve is up against San Diego Padres starter Kyle Hart.
It helps that Hart is a southpaw, but I’m more interested in Hart’s brief time in the majors, during which he has allowed six homers in just 22 2/3 innings of work. That includes two more longballs allowed in his three starts for the Padres this year.
Altuve should get at least a couple turns against Hart, so I can’t turn down the generous +500 odds on him to homer tonight.
Mike Trout (+475 at BetMGM)
Throughout much of his career, it would have been unthinkable to get +475 on Mike Trout to go deep, but the Los Angeles Angels superstar is off to a terrible start.
Over his first 18 games of the season, Trout is hitting just .179 with a mediocre .741 OPS. His walk rate is down to just 11.4%, and his isolated power is .284, one of the lowest numbers of his career.
But despite all that, Trout has hit six homers this year. And while the topline numbers don’t look good, there are plenty of metrics that suggest we shouldn’t give up on the 33-year-old just yet.
Trout’s hard-hit rate is up to 48% for the year, largely in line with his career rate of 49.2%. His BABIP is an unsustainably low .136, suggesting he’s due for upward regression. His biggest “problem” is that his fly ball percentage is up to 44.0%, which isn’t something we’re worried about for a home run prop.
Take advantage of the big odds on Trout's home run props while they’re still available.
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Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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