The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres continue a three-game series tonight in the Bronx.
After controlling much of the game, the Yankees fumbled away a win that would have ended a two-game losing streak in the eighth inning. While bouncing back will be a tall task with Michael King returning to New York this evening, my Padres vs. Yankees predictions don't expect a long outing from the righty.
My MLB picks break it down ahead of this 7:05 p.m. start on Tuesday, May 6.
Padres vs Yankees prediction
My Padres vs Yankees best bet: Michael King Under 17.5 outs (-130 at Fanatics)
At first glance, this is a great spot and value for the San Diego Padres.
After all, based on the pitching numbers this season, there's a pretty big mismatch, and the New York Yankees have been slumping. My numbers tend to agree, making the fair money line price on the Padres north of -130. But some situational aspects of this matchup that are baked in oddsmakers' numbers may not show up in most models.
This is the first time Michael King has faced the Yankees since being dealt in the Juan Soto deal two years ago, and it is in the Bronx in a nationally televised game.
"I can't let the hype get to me because I still got a job to do," King said Monday afternoon about the matchup. "It's a phenomenal lineup over there, so I've got to channel that adrenaline and make sure I can have some success."
That mere quote is illuminating and tells you that overcoming the hype and emotion is on his mind.
But more than that, this is a Yankees team with plenty of players familiar with King, which cannot be understated. Ask Nestor Cortes about that. The lefty lasted two innings and gave up five homers in his return to the Bronx earlier this season. The underlying stats suggest an early exit for King tonight, too.
King has notched some impressive numbers this season, but they have come against some fairly soft competition. Four of his seven starts have come against offenses that rank in the bottom half of baseball in runs per game, with the only one coming close to mimicking the same amount of power the Yankees have, the Atlanta Braves. He lasted just 2 2/3 innings.
Despite the soft schedule, he's gone Over 17.5 outs once. Why should he be expected to do it against the toughest team he's faced this season, with the pressure heightened more than it's been all season?
I'm high on King long-term, and he will be a good one-two punch with Dylan Cease this year for the Padres. However, getting this number at Yankee Stadium is reserved for the game's elite pitchers. I'm not sure he's there yet, and his excellent start to the season is a little smoke and mirrors.
Padres vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Michael King Under 17.5 outs
F5 Under 4.5
Let's keep this fairly straightforward and pair the first five innings to go Under with our best bet.
We're getting a nice non-correlated price pairing this with our best bet because running a pitcher early from a game typically means more runs scored. However, that may not be the case here.
One of the reasons I'm so high on the Yankees to get King out of this game early is New York is averaging the third-most pitches per plate appearance. That should enable the Yankees to rack up the pitch count on King while not necessarily cashing in on the run side of things. I made this number 3.9.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Yankees odds
Padres vs Yankees live odds
Padres vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | New York -110
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+180) | New York +1.5 (-220)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Padres vs Yankees trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Yankees.
How to watch Padres vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (4-1, 2.09 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 5.52 ERA) |
Padres vs Yankees latest injuries
Padres vs Yankees weather
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