It’s the most wonderful time of the year. NASCAR will be racing at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, brother!
Yes, we all know the Daytona 500 is the Cup Series’ marquee race, but who doesn't love some rough driving, big crashes, and can't-miss finishes in the fine state of Indiana?
When the green flag gets waved for the drivers’ first lap around “The Brickyard” on Sunday at 2:00 pm on TNT, my NASCAR race picks will be putting my money on a favorite of mine in Chase Elliott, who got more screwed over last week than Bret Hart did in 1997.
I’ll round out my free betting picks by talking about why I have my eyes fixated on Tyler Reddick as well as one of NASCAR’s most prolific “bad guys” in Carson Hocevar.
Read all about it below. ⬇️
NASCAR prop picks for Brickyard 400
- Top 3 Finish: Chase Elliott (+275)
- Top 5 Finish: Tyler Reddick (+180)
- Top 10 Finish: Carson Hocevar (+140)
NASCAR Brickyard 400 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Chase Elliott (+275 at bet365)
Okay, let’s state the obvious: A lot of y’all had money on Elliott last week. I'd speculate that most of you are still pulling your hair out after Elliott’s crew chief made him pit late in the race last week when it was his to take. So, you'll say Elliott won't receive any of your betting dollars this week.
In all fairness, though, what is done is done. You can't dwell on it. You have to move on.
Furthermore, if you dive into the raw empirical data, Elliott’s numbers are stronger than AI Bigfoot after drinking a pre-workout shake. The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet pilot has been a thunderous presence atop the points standings this season, taking the overall lead after a stretch in which he notched six Top 6 finishes in the last seven races, including a win at the notoriously tricky Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Statistically, Elliott has quietly built a bona fide resumé at Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s hallowed oval. He carries an average finish of 10th at Indy, ranking among the top drivers in recent years and outpacing many of his rivals in terms of consistency. In seven career Brickyard 400 starts, Elliott has delivered two Top 10s on the oval, both coming in his last three outings.
When you shift the lens to similar 1.5-mile and intermediate-length racetracks, the case only grows. Elliott holds a career average finish of 13th on intermediate tracks—a mark that places him alongside veteran elites like Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.
This year, he not only won an Xfinity Series race at Charlotte—a 1.5-mile speedway—but did it from deep in the field, showing both the strategic acumen of his crew (when they're not messing up) and his capability to charge to the front regardless of circumstances.
I have Elliott priced closer to +190, so I’ll gladly take +275 and hope he qualifies well.
Top 5 Finish: Tyler Reddick (+180 at bet365)
Hear me out: This number would be much shorter if Tyler Reddick had a bigger sample size racing at Indy.
Across two Cup starts, Reddick owns the best average starting position among active drivers at Indy—a blistering 7.0. That’s a crucial advantage, as track position at “The Brickyard” is everything, and he consistently puts himself in contention from the drop of the green.
Reddick has shown the ability to lead laps and contend. He’s a regular in the mix on similar 1.5-2-mile circuits—think Atlanta, Michigan, and Dover, where he’s already bagged multiple Top 5s in 2025.
At Dover this season, he finished exactly where we’re betting on him to finish at Indy: fourth. If he qualifies well, I'm not sure the +180 price will hold, so we may as well get it while we can.
Top 10 Finish: Carson Hocevar (+140 at bet365)
The Michigan native is quickly earning a reputation as one of the most fearless—and quietly effective—young talents in the Cup Series, particularly when the cards fall just right on big, demanding tracks like Indianapolis.
At first glance, Hocevar’s 2025 stat line might appear modest—just 4 Top 10s in 21 starts and an average finish around 23.6—but it doesn’t tell the full story.
He’s wheeled the No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevy close to the Top 10 at the Brickyard before, finishing a strong 12th in his Cup debut at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in 2024.
That’s not an outlier, either: Hocevar holds a career average finish of 12.0 at Indy, putting him right in the mix with more established names and demonstrating that this 2.5-mile rectangular oval rewards his patient style and adaptability.
On intermediate and superspeedway ovals, Hocevar is quietly evolving into a regular up-front presence. His 2025 breakthrough moments include a dramatic runner-up at Atlanta—one of the circuit's trickiest “big” tracks—and a gritty second-place at Nashville, where he matched his career best and held off championship-grade opposition when it counted.
I have always loved a somewhat feisty driver. A guy like Hocevar will reap the rewards of that this weekend, or at least, create a highlight reel crash trying to.
At +140, I’ll give him some love.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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