You can be selfish. You can wonder who would give the Cavaliers a tougher test in the first round: the Miami Heat or the Atlanta Hawks.
That is most likely your only rooting interest in this do-or-die Play-In game for the Eastern 8 seed.
But to provide a few other interests, enjoy some Heat vs. Hawks props and NBA picks.
Best Heat vs Hawks props
Trae Young o10.5 assists (-140 at bet365)
Bam Adebayo o9.5 rebounds (-140 at bet365)- Tyler Herro 4+ threes (+190 at bet365)
Heat vs Hawks player props for April 18
Trae Young Over 10.5 assists (-140 at bet365)
While these two split their season series, Trae Young handed out assists with ease in all of them. The Atlanta Hawks point guard cleared this prop in three of the four games, averaging 12.25 assists.
And coming off an ejection on Tuesday for, in his opinion, sticking up for his teammates, Young should emphasize moving the ball around a bit more against the Miami Heat.
Young has not shot well against Miami this year, going just 9-of-34 from deep (26.5%) in those four games. Some of that may be divisional familiarity, some of it may be that the Heat have big enough perimeter players to bother the 6-foot-1 shooter, and some of it assuredly is variance. Regardless of the reason, Young has largely worked around it by facilitating.
Frankly, this assist prop should be higher, something in the world of 11.5 or 12. Set aside Young’s average against Miami this season, and realize he averaged 11.6 assists across the entire season. Hell, he cleared this prop in 21 of his last 32 games before Tuesday’s loss to the Magic.
Defeating this prop down to 10.5 simply because of that performance and/or because of a total that is 5.5 points lower than their last meeting is an overreaction that provides us value.
Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 rebounds (-140 at bet365)
In their four regular-season matchups, Bam Adebayo cleared this prop twice. That may sound like reason to doubt it at such steep juice of -140, but some faith should be put in Adebayo’s workload increasing here.
He played between 35 and 38 minutes in each of those four games, and even in Wednesday’s blowout of the Bulls, Adebayo managed only 35:35, though he snagged 12 rebounds.
That was a rout, and Miami knew it had this do-or-die game awaiting. Unless the Heat absolutely thrash the Hawks, one has to assume Erik Spoelstra will ask for the most from his best player.
The ability to depend on Adebayo is why he played less down the stretch, seeing just 21 minutes in Miami’s penultimate game and then sitting out the regular-season finale. If not about to ask Adebayo for more now, then when?
Tyler Herro 4+ threes (+190 at bet365)
A critic might point out that Tyler Herro shot just 12-of-30 from deep against Atlanta this season. That is true.
However, it is also true that Herro went 0-of-9 in one game and hit four triples in the three other games against the Hawks.
Atlanta’s 3-point defense is far from ideal, as opponents hit 40.4% of their attempts in the last month of the season. Even if the Hawks generally limit those looks, ranking No. 10 in the last month at 40.9% of opponents’ shots coming from deep, giving up enough open looks to rank No. 29 in 3-point percentage against is a problem.
And it is a problem Herro will capitalize on.
His 3-pointers made Over/Under is currently set at 2.5, with the Over juiced to -135. Asking Herro to make one more 3-pointer at a return of +190 is decisively better value.
Not intended for use in MA.
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