The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets face off in the first round of the NBA playoffs this afternoon.
L.A.'s offense was red-hot to end the season, which is why my NBA picks are backing James Harden and Ivica Zubac to put up big numbers today.
Here are my best Clippers vs. Nuggets props for Game 1 of their Western Conference series on Saturday, April 19.
Best Clippers vs Nuggets props
Harden o9.5 assists (-105 at bet365)- Zubac o16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Westbrook o2.5 turnovers (+115 at bet365)
Clippers vs Nuggets player props for April 19
James Harden Over 9.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Clippers ended the regular season on a tear, going 18-4 in their last 22 games and ranking second in the NBA in offensive rating over that span.
Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets play at a fast pace and rank 21st in defensive rating (115.1) — the worst number out of every team to make the playoffs. They've been even worse lately, posting a defensive rating of 118.4 since the start of March.
The Clippers should be able to have offensive success, and that will lead to strong assist numbers for James Harden. 'The Beard' finished fifth in the league with 8.7 assists per game, and that number ticked up to 9.5 apg with Kawhi Leonard in the lineup.
L.A.'s late-season surge had a lot to do with having a healthy Leonard back, and with their leading scorer on the floor, Harden can focus on facilitating. Harden has dropped 10+ assists in seven of his last eight games and should eclipse that number in Game 1.
Ivica Zubac Over 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic is clearly the best offensive player in the league, but the superstar isn't known for his interior defense. Denver is 25th in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game (50.6) while ranking 23rd in defending the rim per ShotQualityBets.
That's bad news against Clippers center Ivica Zubac, who led the league in paint touches per game (10.9) and was second in ppg in the paint (10.5). Zubac has dropped 20+ points in four of his last five games and is averaging 20.2 ppg over the last 24 contests.
He's also the Clippers' best defensive big, and they'll need him on the floor as much as possible to match up against Jokic.
Russell Westbrook Over 2.5 turnovers (+115 at bet365)
Russell Westbrook is more of a sixth man than the superstar he was earlier in his career, but he's still the same erratic ball-handler that he's always been. Westbrook has averaged a whopping 3.7 turnovers per game over his last 40 games.
That's why it's surprising to see the Over 2.5 turnovers prop for Westbrook installed at plus money despite the Nuggets guard eclipsing that number in 13 of his last 17 contests. The Clippers also rank sixth in opponent turnover rate (14.9%) and second in steals per defensive play (8.5%).
Considering Westbrook previously played for the Clippers and was unceremoniously dumped last year, he might be eager for revenge, which could cause him to press and make more errors.
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