A pair of pivotal Game 4s in the NBA Playoffs will fill our night, with the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves looking for commanding 3-1 leads over the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, respectively.
The Knicks need to depend on their defense, while this is the rare series where the Timberwolves need to turn to their offense.
Recognizing those two emphases can provide some possible value in an NBA parlay, and I've made one with three NBA picks!.
Today's best NBA Playoff parlay: May 12
Celtics/Knicks Under 208
Timberwolves -5
Timberwolves/Warriors Over 200.5
Pick #1: Celtics/Knicks Under 208
The New York Knicks won the first two games of this conference semifinal thanks to their defense, holding the Boston Celtics to 100 points in regulation in Game 1 and then 90 in Game 2.
Game 1 pushed against its total only because of overtime, falling 13 points short in regulation, while Game 2 was a comical 30 points below its total.
Why has the total in Game 4 moved only three points lower than in Game 2? Because those seeming defensive successes were dependent on Boston missing an excess of 3-pointers, going 15 of 60 in Game 1 and 10 of 40 in Game 2. You do not have to be good at math to know 25 of 100 is bad.
The Celtics then went 20-for-40 from deep in Game 3, which still went Over its total by just one point.
The Knicks are going to drag this game into the mud because it is their best hope. And logic expects Boston to fall short of 50% from long range. That combination should assure yet another Under in this series.
Pick #2: Timberwolves -5
The Golden State Warriors emptied the proverbial chamber in Game 3 on Saturday night. They got 33 points from Jimmy Butler, nearly matching his 37 combined from Games 1 and 2 on the road. Jonathan Kuminga added an efficient 30 points, and Anthony Edwards struggled for nearly three full quarters.
Then Edwards took off while Butler stalled in the final minutes. After Edwards detonated on Kevon Looney’s head with fewer than two minutes left in the third quarter, he went 6-for-9 from the field for 18 points in the final 14 minutes, matching the 18 points (on 7-for-19 shooting) in his first 30 minutes of the game.
Meanwhile, Butler went 1 of 7 for five points in the fourth quarter.
It's not that Edwards needed that massive dunk to find his groove, it's that Golden State finally wore through. A lack of quality depth and an excess of age caught up to the Warriors, exacerbated by Draymond Green fouling out.
That depth has not improved in the last two days, and one has gotten younger. The postseason fatigue is going to only further bother Golden State, allowing Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves to win easily tonight.
Pick #3: Timberwolves/Warriors Over 200.5
If Edwards and the Timberwolves win easily tonight, it will be thanks to their offense. If their offense finally finds a rhythm, it could rain 3-pointers down on the Warriors.
Edwards was not the only one to break loose late on Saturday night. Jaden McDaniels scored nine points on 2-for-2 shooting in the fourth quarter, while Julius Randle handed out five assists in the final frame. Minnesota also went 6-for-10 from deep to close the game.
That 33-point Timberwolves’ fourth quarter nearly pushed Game 3 to the Over, still falling three points short. But if Minnesota had been humming at all in the first half, a 40-point misery, then the Over would have been long assured.
As the Warriors reach their breaking point physically, the Timberwolves may have remembered their best edge in this series. Minnesota may run this one up tonight, and that would expose this comically low total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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