The Houston Rockets are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and they’ll be greeted in the first round by a familiar face in the Golden State Warriors.
We’ll go over why Houston is a sleeping giant waiting to take hold of this series with some strong play inside in my Warriors vs. Rockets predictions.
Let’s dig into some NBA picks on Saturday, April 20.
Who will win Warriors vs Rockets Game 1?
It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Houston Rockets at full strength, so it’d be natural to ride the hot hand here with the Golden State Warriors. With that said, Houston has been the better of the two teams inside all season long — offensively and on the glass — and the Rockets' ability to limit 3-point attempts will play a major role tonight.
If they keep Golden State from winning this game from the arc, I see no reason why the Rockets won't win at home, particularly with a sizable edge on the glass, which all too often makes an impact in the playoffs.
Warriors vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Rockets moneyline (-115 at bet365)
The Rockets had a rocky end to the season with many of their best players injured, but they should have a rather clean bill of health entering the playoffs with just Jock Landale and Jae’Sean Tate expected to miss tonight's game. Those two have been coming off the bench all season long, and the important thing is that this entire starting five is set to play together again.
Golden State, meanwhile, really enjoyed the last month of the season — winning seven of 10 to earn a trip to the Play-In series, where it took out a very good Memphis Grizzlies team. The vibes are high with the Warriors sitting Top-9 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and that should make for a good first game as Houston’s defense has remained a force all year and finished fifth in the NBA.
Things have been a bit tumultuous with so many starters out, so it’s important to remember that team performed brilliantly in the mid-range for the majority of the year this and ranked 11th against the three and 13th at the rim.
The latter would stand as the hardest test, given Houston has prevented teams from taking 3-pointers this season, and the good news is Golden State rarely shoots from the rim and the mid-range, ranking second in 3-point frequency this season and second in April.
The Warriors do look to be a tough test with the fifth-best field-goal percentage at the rim this month, but it’s the 3-pointer that will really propel them to great heights. Memphis doesn’t defend the arc quite like Houston, and that’s going to set this offense back a bit.
Houston’s ability to run teams off the 3-point line should stun the Warriors early in this series. On top of that, the Rockets are head and shoulders above Golden State on the glass — particularly with Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams back in the fold.
The Rockets' poor rim protection shouldn’t be too much of a factor here given the Warriors’ reluctance to shoot from in close, and they should hold a distinct edge in the two other areas of the floor.
This offense has been a bit up and down, but Houston does profile in the opposite direction with plenty of shots coming at the rim. Against a weak frontcourt, I expect the Rockets to win that war of attrition down low and ride their perimeter defense to a win.
Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Rockets moneyline
Alperen Sengun 20+ points
Stephen Curry Under 4.5 threes
This Warriors frontcourt ranked 27th in rim defense in the last month of the season. Sengun's missed a few games down the stretch, and did come up one point short of 20 against Golden State the last time he met this team, but I expect a different player now that the games hold more meaning.
Sengun does have a 26-point night to his name in this season series, and as a player who shoots a good deal at the rim and is relied upon for offense, this is an excellent discount.
On top of that, I think we have to back the trends, which tell us Stephen Curry may not be able to get many shots away from outside. Yes, he’s shooting the ball well, but he’s just 9-30 in three games versus Houston. The likelihood he nails five from beyond the arc with how the Rockets defend the perimeter and run their opponents off the line are rather slim here.
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Warriors vs Rockets odds
Warriors vs Rockets live odds
Warriors vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +1 (-110) | Houston -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State -105 | Houston -115
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets are just 17-17 against the spread this season as home favorites.
- Golden State has covered in its last three games as underdogs.
- Houston went 44-36-2 to the Over this year but just 17-15-2 as favorites at home.
- Golden State is 27-21 to the Over after a win.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 14% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.
How to watch Warriors vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 4-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries
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