Houston and Texas Tech meet tonight at United Supermarkets Arena in a rematch of a thriller earlier this season.
The Cougars' last loss came at the hands of these Red Raiders, but my Houston vs. Texas Tech predictions think the Cougs will avenge that loss tonight.
Find out why in my college basketball picks for Monday, February 24.
Houston vs Texas Tech prediction
My best bet
Houston moneyline (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
There were a few oddities the first time these teams met, but one of the strangest was the Texas Tech free throw rate. The Red Raiders' free throw rate of 29% is in the bottom quadrant nationally at 293rd.
Yet in that matchup, they got the line at an eye-popping 63%, easily the season's highest mark. I don't think that's repeatable, and if you're willing to chalk that up to just a one-off, some serious advantages emerge for Houston.
These are two similar teams, but the Cougars are slightly better than the opponent in almost every aspect. One of the highlighted places is offensive rebounding: Texas Tech ranks a strong 49th nationally, but Houston is even better, ranking 11th.
The Cougars' DNA is well established. The group wants to defeat you with physicality and a massive shot-volume advantage. I think they can establish that shot volume advantage here, and that's ultimately the difference, as it so often is for the Cougs.
Houston has lost just one game this season when it had a net offensive rebounding advantage against its opponent, and it came in the first matchup between these two teams.
Why? Yet again, the number of trips Texas Tech made to the line shifted this advantage significantly. Even with that, the Red Raiders still needed overtime to win.
Outside of this, Houston typically has some notable defensive advantages in the halfcourt. Tech remains somewhat reliant on transition scoring, with one of the highest percentiles nationally in such areas. The problem with Houston is it is tough to speed up and get those transition opportunities.
Even though it went to OT, the first meeting barely cracked 70 possessions. You'd expect this one to stay in the mid-60s, and Houston is almost unbeatable when that happens. Give me the Cougs.
Houston vs Texas Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Houston moneyline
J'Wan Roberts 7+ rebound
I've leaned on J'Wan Roberts' rebound prop throughout the season as a profitable angle and it's gone well.
This goes back to aspects we discussed in my best bet. Roberts pulled down seven boards in a game with an inordinate number of fouls called. That gives me confidence a game with two elite defenses can make that a repeatable feat.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Houston vs Texas Tech odds
Houston vs Texas Tech live odds
Houston vs Texas Tech opening odds
- Spread: Houston -1.5 | Texas Tech +1.5
- Moneyline: Houston -115 | Texas Tech -105
- Over/Under: Over 132.5 | Under 132.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Houston vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
Houston has hit the 1H moneyline in 31 of its last 38 games (+13.25 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch Houston vs Texas Tech
| Location | United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX |
| Date | Monday, 2-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Houston vs Texas Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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