This afternoon's ACC matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers and North Carolina Tar Heels has had some high stakes over the years, and today is no different.
North Carolina is one of the teams on the "First Four Out" line of the big dance. They lose here, and that battle becomes nearly impossible. As for the Cavaliers, they'll look to build some positive momentum before the conference tournament in two weeks. Our Virginia vs. North Carolina predictions like them to hang tough here.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Saturday, February 22nd.
Virginia vs North Carolina prediction
My best bet
Virginia +9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is one of those spots towards the end of the season where a fun convergence of things happens. I have faded these two underwhelming teams (and coaches) this season, and they've gone well. But there's no question which team has struggled more in its current "situational spot," and I'm rolling with the Virginia Cavaliers against the spread.
The North Carolina Tar Heels have not dealt well with expectations. Sure, they blitzed rival NC State as a favorite earlier this week, but that was more of an anomaly than anything else. Before that game, the Tar Heels failed to cover as favorites in five straight. Most of those were games with a similar spread like this.
Simply put, this team hasn't displayed the 40-minute focus you need to cover against teams that are highly familiar with the system you play. Beyond that, there are potential areas of exploitation for UVA.
This isn't Tony Bennett's elite-level pack-line defense, but Virginia has improved over the last few weeks and is well-suited to the task.
North Carolina is highly reliant on isolation plays, with RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, and Elliot Cadeau doing the bulk of the scoring, and the Cavs are good at slowing that.
They've raised their game in this regard against the better opponents on their schedule. Against Top-50 opponents, Virginia has held plays defined as "dribble jumpers" to .60 points per possession, which is the best in the ACC. As a result, North Carolina could go through multiple extended spells of struggling to score in the halfcourt.
On the other side of the ball, I'm going to assume that Virginia can score with some regularity because, well, everyone scores against North Carolina. UNC ranks seventh in the ACC in defensive efficiency, which is relatively concerning. Attack and kicks are a fundamental part of Virginia, and just like almost everything, North Carolina has been slightly below average defensively against these schemes.
Since opening, this spread has moved a point, and I agree with that movement. Virginia will lean on its improved defense to hang around in this spot, and I'd play this to 8.5.
Virginia vs North Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Virginia +9.5
Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 threes
Virginia's Isaac McKneely has shot better on the road this season from deep at a 44% clip. In addition to that, he's the primary option off of those drive-and-kick threes. I would have expected this number to have risen to 3.5 after his recent hot streak, but it's stayed the same — we'll gladly take it.
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Virginia vs North Carolina odds
Virginia vs North Carolina live odds
Virginia vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Virginia +10.5 (-110) | North Carolina -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Virginia +500 | North Carolina -700
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Virginia vs North Carolina betting trend to know
Virginia has covered the 1H spread in eight of its last 12 away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Virginia vs North Carolina
| Location | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Saturday, 2-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Virginia vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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