It’s great to have NFL betting back, but the start to the 2025 season has been a little... dull. Through two weeks, there have been some amazing games but few surprises.
Point spread favorites are 22-9 straight up, faves bigger than a field goal are 14-1 SU, and teams laying six points or more are a perfect 6-0 SU. Pretty much par for the course.
From a gambling standpoint, favorites are a ho-hum 16-15 against the spread (with one game closing pick’em). Yawn. I guess those early results seem vanilla when compared to the spicy start of the 2024 season.
This time last year, favorites were 20-11 SU, but chalk of -6 or higher was 4-4 SU and 0-7-1 ATS. By Week 3, we had already watched three favorites of more than a touchdown lose outright. Wild times.
Will NFL Week 3 continue playing by the rules, or will we get that dose of drama we’re so desperately craving? Maybe my best NFL picks and predictions can liven things up.
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 3-3 ATS
NFL Week 3 predictions and picks
Lions +6
Cowboys +1.5
Texans +1.5
Detroit Lions (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
Best bet: Detroit Lions +6
(-116 at Pinnacle)
There’s a significant adjustment in this Monday Night Football spread when comparing the look-ahead line from the summer to the current one for Week 3.
Before the season started, the Detroit Lions were +3.5 at Baltimore in this prime-time finale. Now, they're catching as many as six points. I’m not buying it.
Detroit stumbled in the opener but looked every part the Super Bowl contender in last weekend’s beatdown of the Chicago Bears. That offense was humming and faces a Baltimore defense potentially missing key pieces in Week 3.
The Ravens might be down top pass rusher Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) and top DB Marlon Humphrey (groin), with both leaving Sunday’s wishy-washy win over the Cleveland Browns.
Baltimore was locked in a gritty divisional battle for three quarters before busting open the Browns in the fourth quarter for a 41-17 victory. The Ravens’ run game suddenly went MIA, and they needed a blocked punt, fumble recovery, and interception to set up 21 of those points.
The tall total tells the tale of a shootout in Charm City, and I like the Lions to stay within this inflated spread.
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Chicago Bears
Best bet: Dallas Cowboys +1.5
(-112 at DraftKings)
It’s the Matt Eberflus “Revenge Game”!
But seriously...
Beyond having some inside intel on the Bears’ personnel from their former head coach and new DC, the Dallas Cowboys have the better offense and better defense — whatever that’s worth.
Honestly, both stop units are horrible, but at least the Cowboys have an identity in their pass rush.
Dallas has gotten solid pressure on the passer through two games, something we didn’t think would happen after trading Micah Parsons. Heading into Week 3, Big D is fourth in hurries, fifth in QB hits, and fifth in pressure rate.
The Dallas offense is also performing well, with a balanced attack. The Cowboys are an efficient rushing team, picking up 5.1 yards per carry, and that’s opened space for the play-action pass.
The Cowboys are converting on third downs and cashing in on red-zone trips, sitting in the Top 10 in both EPA per play and success rate.
Chicago’s defense isn’t great at full strength and could be far from it in Week 3. Corner Jaylon Johnson left Sunday’s loss to Detroit with a groin injury, and LB T.J. Edwards reaggravated a hamstring. Corner Kyler Gordon still hasn’t played either.
We’re seeing plenty of books jump the fence on this spread, so we’re snatching up points with the Cowboys in the Windy City.
Houston Texans (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Best bet: Houston Texans +1.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
The Jaguars see a massive leap in competition in Week 3.
Jacksonville started the season against the doleful defenses of the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals, helping puff up those offensive numbers in the opening two games.
This week, the Houston Texans come to town.
The Texans may be traveling on a short turnaround but have permanent residence in Duval County, thanks to a 6-0 SU run and 4-1-1 ATS record at Jacksonville since 2018.
Houston has one of the better stop units in the land and just let a win slip through its fingers on Monday night. The Texans' pass rush recorded three sacks and numerous pressures against Tampa Bay, entering Week 3 ranked No. 1 in pass rush win rate by ESPN.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has a hard enough time hitting his receivers without a defensive lineman in his face. His 36.6% on-target rate sits between J.J. McCarthy and Joe Flacco, and that’s with the lowest pressure rate allowed in the NFL. Lawrence’s PFF rating falls to 58.2 when under duress.
As for Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud, he’s faced two tricky defenses between the L.A. Rams and Tampa Bay. On Sunday, he will see a lot more zone coverage from new Jacksonville defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile.
That works in Stroud’s favor, with the third-year passer seeing a significant rise in success vs. zone schemes compared to man-to-man. He’s balled out against the Jags for his brief career, boasting seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 110.1 passer rating over four meetings.
The Texans have the better QB and the better defense. Good enough for me.
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