This evening's edition of Thursday Night Football promises a blowout, with the 2-0 Buffalo Bills hosting the winless Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo currently enters as 11.5-point favorites, with the total set at 49.5.
My Dolphins vs. Bills predictions expect James Cook to see plenty of work in Buffalo’s offense, and not just on the ground.
Check out my full NFL picks for this AFC East showdown on September 18, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime.
Dolphins vs Bills prediction
Dolphins vs Bills Best bet: James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
Through two games, the Miami Dolphins have been destroyed through the air against opposing running backs, allowing 146 total receiving yards to the RB position — the third-worst mark in the NFL.
It’s not just a lot of total yards either, as Miami is allowing massive chunk plays on these passes. The Colts and Patriots combined for 11 completions to backs on 11 targets for an average of 13.2 yards per catch, so don’t be shocked if James Cook hits the Over in one go.
Cook had a massive game through the air in Week 1 vs. the Ravens, catching all five of his targets to compile 58 yards.
The RB has also had success surpassing the 11.5 mark against the Dolphins. He had games of 25 and 17 receiving yards against them last season, while in 2023, he achieved marks of 48 and 16.
With a large spread, there’s always a concern the favorite could be in a spot to take their foot off the gas and potentially limit snaps from some starters, but we saw signs of life from Miami’s offense last week.
This leads me to believe the Buffalo Bills offense will be aggressive throughout the game, given Miami’s ability to put up points.
Dolphins vs Bills TNF same-game parlay
While points will come easily for the Bills, I expect the Dolphins to contribute to the scoring as well.
Let’s not pretend the Bills have an elite defense, as they currently rank last in yards allowed per rush at 6.8.
The Fins are tied for fourth in this category offensively, so look for them to lean on De'Von Achane to take some pressure off the rest of the offense.
Dolphins vs Bills 3-leg SGP (+701)
- James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
- De'Von Achane Over 53.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Both teams to score 20+ points - Yes (+120)
Our big-ticket SGP: James Cooks
- James Cook already has three touchdowns and is coming off a season where he scored 18.
- He notably had a three-touchdown game vs Miami last season.
Dolphins vs Bills 4-leg SGP (+1240)
- James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
- De'Von Achane Over 53.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Both teams to score 20+ points - Yes (+129)
- James Cook anytime touchdown (-165)
Dolphins vs Bills game predictions
Dolphins vs Bills moneyline prediction
Weird things happen on Thursday nights, but I can’t find a logical path to victory for the Dolphins given the state of their defense, which will have no shot at slowing down perhaps the league’s top home offense.
Final score prediction: Bills to win 36-23
Dolphins vs Bills spread prediction
It’s a big number, and maybe I’d give Miami some consideration if the game were later in the season and this were a lookahead spot for Buffalo, but neither is the case with New Orleans on deck next for the Bills.
Dolphins vs Bills Over/Under prediction
I don’t like the Over, I love it.
We know Buffalo will get its points, and I believe the Dolphins can contribute to the scoring against this sketchy Bills defense that allowed 40 points in Week 1.
Dolphins vs Bills odds
- Spread: Miami +11.5 (-110) | Buffalo -11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +550 | Buffalo -800
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Dolphins vs Bills betting trend to know
Buffalo has eclipsed its team total in 10 of its last 11 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Bills.
How to watch Dolphins vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Thursday, September 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
Learn how to live stream Dolphins vs. Bills for free.
Dolphins vs Bills latest injuries
Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is officially questionable with a shoulder injury for tonight’s game. He was limited in practice this week after getting hurt in Miami's Week 2 loss to the Patriots.
Multiple outlets report the team is optimistic he’ll play, but Waddle will test the shoulder pregame and it will come down to a game-time decision.
Waddle caught four passes for 41 yards against the Bills in Week 2 last season, although he was considerably less effective in the Week 9 rematch, posting -4 yards on two passes.
More Thursday Night Football picks and odds from Covers
- Dolphins vs. Bills props
- Dolphins vs. Bills anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Dolphins vs. Bills computer picks
- Dolphins vs. Bills same game parlay picks
- Josh Allen prop picks
- Thursday Night Football odds
Dolphins vs Bills weather
The skies above Orchard Park will be mostly sunny leading into the evening, with temperatures around 79°F in the mid-afternoon. As kickoff time approaches, expect temperatures to dip into the high 60s, with partly cloudy skies after sunset. There is no expectation of rain (just 7%) or heavy winds, so conditions should be fairly calm.
This evening's weather is unlikely to drastically favor one team over the other in terms of raw physical advantage, but as the game progresses and temperatures drop, certain details like ball handling, conservative vs. aggressive play-calling, and maintaining energy could make a difference in a close game.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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