Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup on September 8, 2025, brings a classic NFC North rivalry under the primetime spotlight. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy makes his NFL debut as a slight road favorite at Soldier Field, looking to lead a Minnesota team that has fully handed him the reins with Sam Darnold out of the picture.
On the other side, the new-look Chicago Bears, guided by a revamped coaching staff and a home crowd eager for a fast start, will look to test McCarthy early.
The Vikings opened as 1.5 point favorites with the total set at 44.
Find out why my Vikings vs. Bears predictions and NFL picks are putting faith in McCarthy on Monday night.
Vikings vs Bears prediction
Vikings vs Bears Best bet: J.J. McCarthy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
Pricing rookies is never easy, but J.J. McCarthy has had a full year to acclimate and now steps into a Kevin O’Connell offense that helped Sam Darnold generate MVP buzz late last season. McCarthy won’t have Jordan Addison (suspended), but with Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jalen Nailor around him, the supporting cast is strong. Jefferson alone could cash this TD prop, especially with the Vikings ranking third in red-zone pass rate in neutral game scripts, per THE BLITZ.
Minnesota scored 30 points in both games against the Chicago Bears last season, racking up 781 total yards at 5.74 yards per play. The move from Darnold to McCarthy shouldn't cause a major drop-off, and this matchup projects as the third-fastest-paced game of Week 1 (131.4 offensive plays). More pace means more opportunities.
Meanwhile, the Bears are adjusting to a completely new regime — head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator — which could lead to early growing pains on both sides of the ball. That’s a Week 1 edge for Minnesota.
Ultimately, this comes down to value. According to THE BLITZ, only six QBs are projected to throw more TDs than McCarthy in Week 1: Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson.
Vikings vs Bears same-game parlay
Both QBs can rack up the yards Monday night, and Jefferson will be the focal point even more with no Addison.
Hockenson will be the safety net for McCarthy in his first start, and for a team that passes a lot in the red zone, the tight end could easily be his preferred target.
I know there is no McCarty Over 1.5 pass TDs in this SGP, but that market seems to water down the odds. If I added the McCarthy Over 1.5 TDs instead of Hockenson, this SGP would be +440.
Vikings vs Bears 3-leg SGP
- Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 receiving yards
- DJ Moore Over 58.5 receiving yards
- T.J. Hockenson to score a TD
Our big-ticket SGP: Love the yards and touchdowns
Let's beef up the other SGP by adding the Chicago first-round rookie to the TD party. He's a 6-foot-6 red-zone monster, and Ben Johnson loves getting his athletic TEs involved.
Colston Loveland might not have a huge role in Week 1, but he could have an impact near the goal line vs. a heavy-blitzing Minnesota defense.
Vikings vs Bears 4-leg SGP
- Justin Jefferson Over 78.5 receiving yards
- DJ Moore Over 58.5 receiving yards
- T.J. Hockenson to score a TD
- Colston Loveland to score a TD
Vikings vs Bears game predictions
Vikings vs Bears moneyline prediction
There are moving parts to both teams this year as the Bears have welcomed a new head coach, OC, and DC, while the Vikings are starting a new QB who has not taken a snap in an NFL regular season game and are without WR2 Jordan Addison.
I'm not a big fan of the Bears this year and like their u8.5 wins heading into the season, but it's hard not to like the home dog if you're looking to back the ML.
Yes, there is a chance Caleb Williams falls on his face yet again, but he has the greater pieces for success and the Chicago defense could give McCarthy some issues in his first NFL game which is on the road in a divisional tilt. I don't like the Bears, but they can win this game vs a "rookie" quarterback.
Vikings vs Bears spread prediction
This spread opened Bears -1 back in the spring, moved to Minnesota -2 in August and has settled at Vikings -1.5.
This is a tough game for McCarthy but I think the Vikings do have the better potential to win by margin than Chicago does. It might sound contradictory to my ML look, but if Williams can't handle the heavy blitz from Minnesota, things could get lopsided. The Bears had an EPA per play ranking 25th vs. the blitz last year while the Lions and Ben Johnson ranked first in EPA per play vs. the blitz, so some improvements might be on the way.
Bears can cover, but likely by a little, while the Vikings have the better potential for a bigger win.
Minnesota was a 3-point favorite in Chicago last year in a 30-27 Vikings win in overtime where both Williams and Sam Darnold threw for over 300 yards.
Vikings vs Bears Over/Under prediction
In the two meetings last year, Minnesota put up 30 points in each game but the O/U went 1-1 on a 43.5-point total in Minnesota (30-12 finish) and a 39.5-point total in the 30-27 overtime game.
This total opened at 44, got as low as 43, before resetting to the key number of 44.
It's looking like 68 degrees at game time with an 8mph wind blowing endzone to endzone. Leaning Over more than Under as Caleb and McCarthy have great ceilings.
Vikings vs Bears odds
- Spread: Vikings -1.5 | Bears +1.5
- Moneyline: Vikings -120 | Bears +100
- Over/Under: Over 44 | Under 44
More Vikings vs Bears predictions from Covers
- Vikings vs. Bears prop picks
- Vikings vs. Bears computer picks
- Vikings vs. Bears same-game parlay picks
- Vikings vs. Bears anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Caleb Williams prop picks
- Monday Night Football odds
Vikings vs Bears trend to know
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.60 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Bears.
How to watch Vikings vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, September 8, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC and ESPN |
Learn how to live stream Vikings vs. Bears for free.
Vikings vs Bears latest injuries
Vikings vs Bears weather
All signs point to favorable weather for an evening showdown at Soldier Field. Expect a clear-ish, cool night with very little chance of rain. Conditions are ripe for high-octane offense—passing and kicking games should flow smoothly, and the ground game will benefit from stable footing. Chicago evenings in September typically see mild breezes—historically averaging around 14.8 mph, though this isn’t forecasted to intensify game-time play.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
A bigger concern may be the quality of the Soldier Field turf, as large sections are being actively tended to right before kickoff following a series of big concerts at the historic venue. Here's the latest from ESPN reporter Courtney Cronin:
"Several members of the field crew at Soldier Field are surveying the turf right now and placing a sand/seed mix in areas that need to be filled on the playing surface. The field was re-sodded after a stretch of five concerts at the end of August."
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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