The Kaseya Center in Miami hosts the highly anticipated UFC 314 pay-per-view on Saturday evening. Headlining the main card is a fight for the vacant featherweight title between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.
Below, I break down that fight and two others in my parlay picks and predictions for Saturday’s card.
Best UFC 314 parlay picks
Michal Oleksiejczuk moneyline
Julian Erosa moneyline
Diego Lopes moneyline
Michal Oleksiejczuk moneyline
A middleweight bout concludes the early prelims Saturday, featuring unranked contenders Sedriques Dumas and Michal Oleksiejczuk. The latter is north of a -200 favorite, and for good reason.
While Oleksiejczuk has lost four of his past five fights, the level of competition has been remarkably high. Those four losses came against Shara Magomedov, Kevin Holland, Michel Pereira, and Caio Borralho.
Magomedov is one of the top prospects in the division, Pereira and Borralho are both ranked in the Top 15, and Holland is always game. Dumas, on the other hand, has simply not faced that level of competition.
Dumas is 3-2 over his past five fights, and none of those opponents are ranked. Oleksiejczuk has faced much tougher competition thus far, mainly because he is a far better fighter.
That experience should prove paramount on Saturday.
Julian Erosa moneyline
The next fight on the prelims features a featherweight bout between unranked contenders Darren Elkins and Julian Erosa. The latter is the biggest favorite in this parlay and should also serve as the safest leg.
Erosa is riding a two-fight win streak with submission victories over Christian Rodriguez and Ricardo Ramos. Elkins, while a capable veteran, is past the prime of his career.
Retirement is likely in the near future for Elkins, and that age gap could become a problem in this matchup. Erosa is five years younger and will possess the speed advantage, which will benefit him greatly in a fight that figures to be violent.
Diego Lopes moneyline
As discussed in the introduction, Diego Lopes will face Alexander Volkanovski for the vacant featherweight title. While Volkanovski certainly holds the experience advantage, I simply don’t trust his chin anymore.
He has now been knocked out in back-to-back fights, and Lopes possesses the power to extend that losing streak to three. Of Lopes' past seven wins, four have come by knockout.
There is also a concerning trend for older fighters in championship bouts, which applies to Volkanovski and his six-year age gap with Lopes. There has never been a 35-year-old (or older) to win a title fight at 155 pounds or below.
