The Phoenix Mercury upset the Minnesota Lynx exactly a week ago in a midweek afternoon game scheduled to cater to Phoenix schoolchildren. This rematch should end to the delight of Minnesotan kids everywhere.
My Mercury vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks stay away from a double-digit spread but trust the most mercurial player in Minnesota’s rotation.
Tip comes at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 16.
Mercury vs Lynx predictions
My Mercury vs Lynx best bet: Courtney Williams Over 15.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
No one is happier for the All-Star Break than the Minnesota Lynx. This afternoon will be their 11th game in 23 days, where they've gone just 7-4. Yes, 7-4 qualifies as "just" for Minnesota, given it was 12-1 beforehand.
As the Lynx have shown more and more fatigue, Courtney Williams has increasingly leaned into her constant energy. Sometimes that yields disaster. In the first game of this exhausting three-plus weeks, Williams had 10 turnovers in 28 minutes against the Mystics while scoring just five points.
But more often, the frenetic guard yields the positive form of chaos. With Minnesota worn out, Williams has taken 16.4 shots per game in the last five to average 18.6 points, clearing this prop four times.
She scored 21 points on 9 of 18 shooting against the Phoenix Mercury last week, leading the Lynx in that loss.
Minnesota is at its best when Williams is at her most energetic and most chaotic. Lately, the Lynx have needed her fire in a more literal way. Today may be the last day of that absolute need, but it is still a need she will gladly deliver upon.
Mercury vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Courtney Williams Over 15.5 points
Lynx -10
Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 points
Yes, the Lynx lost to the Mercury a week ago, ultimately undone by losing the fourth quarter 27-14 in an eight-point defeat. And yes, Minnesota is worn out.
But Phoenix had to fly in from Golden State after a tight Monday night win.
Do not overreact to that surprise last week. The Lynx were seven-point road favorites. Being at home today should yield more than a three-point swing.
Alyssa Thomas has cleared this relatively meager prop in each of her last two games, including scoring 29 points against the Lynx last week. She needs to be scoring as the Mercury are without both Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally.
Mercury vs Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx live odds
Mercury vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +8.5 (-110) | Minnesota -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +300 | Minnesota -380
- Over/Under: Over 161 (-110) | Under 161 (-110)
Mercury vs Lynx trend
Minnesota’s fatigue has shown up in its defense, each of its last three games going Over their totals in no small part because each of those three opponents cleared their Team Totals. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx.
How to watch Mercury vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | AZ Family Sports, FDSN North |
Mercury vs Lynx latest injuries
Mercury: Kahleah Copper G (Out), Satou Sabally F (Out), Lexi Held G (Out), Monique Akoa Makani G (Out)
Lynx: Karlie Samuelson G (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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