TIME’s Person of the Year isn’t about who deserves it – it’s about who dominated the year, for better or worse.
That’s why Donald Trump sits atop the odds leaderboard yet again, with a supporting cast that ranges from Elon Musk to AI itself. If nothing else, 2025 is already doing numbers.
So who’s got a real shot? Who’s just here for vibes? And who would break the timeline if they actually won? Let’s break down the latest odds, examine the trends, and see which long shots might crash the cover story of the year.
Time Person of the Year Odds 2025
(Odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of May 1)
| Person | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +210 | 32.3% | $21 |
| Elon Musk | +340 | 22.7% | $34 |
| Xi Jinping | +650 | 13.3% | $65 |
| Pope Francis | +750 | 11.8% | $75 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | +750 | 11.8% | $75 |
| Artificial intelligence (AI)* | +850 | 10.5% | $85 |
*Includes ChatGPT.
The top two names on the early 2025 odds table shouldn't really surprise anyone – nor should we be shocked to see Donald Trump and Elon Musk occupying the top two spots in the closing odds in early December.
Both made more than their share of headlines in the opening weeks of the new year, and set the stage by dominating the headlines in the final weeks of 2024. Trump seeks his third Time Person of the Year honor after winning in 2016 and 2024. Musk was the 2021 Time Person of the Year, one of only two non-politicians (along with Taylor Swift) to garner the year-end cover spot in the past five years.
I reserve the right to change this pick as new value opportunities present themselves, but as of mid-January ...
My Time Person of the Year pick: Elon Musk (+340)
🔥 Time Person of the Year odds: Favorites
Donald Trump (+210): There's really nobody else you could put in the pole position for Time Person of the Year at this point in the calendar. Trump has been front and center in the news cycle since being elected to a second non-consecutive term in November.
Elon Musk (+340): Musk positioned himself to be a main character in Season 1 of the Trump presidential sequel; how long he remains in the picture isn't clear, but you know that whatever happens between Musk and Trump in 2025 will be memorable.
🥈 Time Person of the Year odds: Contenders
Artificial Intelligence (including ChatGPT) (+850): There's precedent to Time awarding its Person of the Year honor to a non-person – and AI made a spirited run in the 2024 odds race before ultimately falling short. But the flip of the calendar has done nothing to quell the fiery debate between AI supporters and those who would happily see the innovation launched into space.
Mark Carney (+1400): The Canadian prime minister pulled off the comeback of the year, with some sports betting sites giving him a 2% chance at winning in early January. He couldn't quite form a majority government, but his April election win over the shell-shocked Conservatives will make waves for the rest of 2025.
Taylor Swift (+1600): The 2023 Time Person of the Year will never be far from the top of this list; she is, after all, Taylor Swift. 2025 might be off to a relatively quiet start for Swift following the emotional end of her Eras tour, but you know the headlines are coming.
🎯 Time Person of the Year odds: Long shots
Jake Paul (+5,500): It feels like Paul should have been a stronger candidate for Time Person of the Year in 2024 – but there was no beating the world's most controversial politician in an election year. After beating one-time boxing great Mike Tyson at his own game and earning tens of millions of dollars in the process, what does Paul have planned for an encore? A bout with Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr., to start.
Logan Paul (+5,500): He's not exactly Ozzie Canseco or Brent Gretzky, but Logan Paul has always been a step behind his brother when it comes to overall acclaim. Don't be surprised to see that dynamic shift in 2025. Logan has a great thing going as one of the top bad guys in World Wrestling Entertainment – and has parlayed that crowd heat into a world championship match at the upcoming Premium Level Event, Backlash.
📈 Trending Up, Trending Down 📉
Here's a look at the biggest odds movers since our previous update:
| Person | Odds | Trend | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pope Francis | +750 | 🔼 | Passed in April; global focus ahead of upcoming conclave. |
| Mark Carney | +1,400 | 🔼 | Resigned in January; legacy spotlight after Liberal election win. |
| Justin Trudeau | +1,700 | 🔼 | Elected PM of Canada in shocking win |
| Joe Rogan | +2,400 | 🔽 | Criticized Trump; podcast slipped behind Amy Poehler’s in rankings. |
Time Person of the Year History
| Year | Winner(s) | Claim to Fame |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Donald Trump | Became just the second man to earn two non-consecutive presidential terms |
| 2023 | Taylor Swift | Headlined the highest-grossing concert tour in history |
| 2022 | Volodymyr Zelenskyy/The Spirit of Ukraine | Led his country against invading Russian forces as President of Ukraine, aided by "the resilience of the Ukrainian people" |
| 2021 | Elon Musk | Became the world's richest man while earning praise for his work with Tesla and SpaceX |
| 2020 | Kamala Harris | Became the first woman and African-American to serve as vice president |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | Was elected as U.S. president, edging out Donald Trump |
| 2019 | Greta Thurnberg | 16-year-old Swedish environmental activist who addressed the United Nations Climate Action Summit |
| 2018 | "The Guardians" | Journalists who faced arrest, capture or murder for their work |
| 2017 | "The Silence Breakers" | Representing those who fought against sexual abuse and harassment |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | Was elected U.S. president, beating out Hillary Clinton |
| 2015 | Angela Merkel | Provided support with Greek debt crisis and European migrant crisis |
| 2014 | "Ebola fighters" | Health care professionals who slowed the spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa |
| 2013 | Pope Francis | Was elected Pope of the Roman Catholic Church |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | Earned re-election as U.S. president over Mitt Romney |
| 2011 | "The Protester" | Acknowledging the rise in major protests around the world |
| 2010 | Mark Zuckerberg | Led Facebook beyond a half-billion users while dealing with major privacy concerns |
| 2009 | Ben Barnanke | Led the Federal Reserve amid the global financial crisis |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | Upended John McCain to become president of the U.S. |
| 2007 | Vladimir Putin | Helped re-establish Russia as a global power while improving economic conditions |
| 2006 | You | Celebrating Internet content creators |
| 2005 | "The Good Samaritans" (Bono, Bill and Melinda Gates) | Honored for their various philanthropic endeavors |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | Re-elected, oversaw U.S. participation in the Iraq War |
| 2003 | "The American soldier" | U.S. soldiers participating in wars around the globe |
| 2002 | "The Whistleblowers" (Cynthia Cooper, Coleen Rowley, Sherron Watkings) | Exposing financial issues at Enron, unearthing fraud at WorldCom, testifying on FBI mishandling 9/11 info |
| 2001 | Rudy Giuliani | Earned praise for his handling of the aftermath of 9/11 as New York City mayor |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | Was elected U.S. president in a narrow vote over Al Gore |
| 1999 | Jeff Bezos | Was a major contributor to the dot-com boom via Amazon |
| 1998 | Ken Starr | Investigated Clinton, publishing the Starr Report which led to Clinton's impeachment |
| 1998 | Bill Clinton | Was impeached due to the Monica Lewinsky scandal but was acquitted by the Senate |
| 1997 | Andrew Grove | Earned credit as a contributor to the tech boom as chairman and CEO of Intel |
| 1996 | David Ho | Helped make significant progress in AIDS research |
| 1995 | Newt Gingrich | Helped lead the "Republican Revolution", became Speaker of the House |
| 1994 | Pope John Paul II | Spoke out against abortion at Cairo Conference, strengthened relations with Israel |
| 1993 | "The Peacemakers" (Yasser Arafat, F.W. de Klerk, Nelson Mandela, Yitzhak Rabin) | Honored for ending Apartheid in South Africa, signing Oslo Accord, overseeing Mandela's release from prison |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | Was elected U.S. president, beating out George H.W. Bush |
| 1991 | Ted Turner | Lifted CNN to prominence via Gulf War coverage |
| 1990 | George H.W. Bush | Forged America's role in the Gulf War as U.S. president |
| 1989 | Mikhail Gorbachev | Instituted the first free Soviet elections; presided over dissolution of Eastern Bloc |
| 1988 | "The Endangered Earth" | Representation of growing global environmental concerns |
| 1987 | Mikhail Gorbachev | Drove perestroika and glasnost political movements as leader of the Soviet Union |
| 1986 | Corazon Aquino | Led People Power Revolution en route to being elected President of the Phillippines |
| 1985 | Deng Xiaoping | Introduced significant economic reforms in China |
| 1984 | Peter Ueberroth | Organized the 1984 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles |
| 1983 | Yuri Andropov | Focused on Soviet economy as General Secretary of the Communist Party |
| 1982 | Ronald Reagan | Made headlines with creation of Strategic Defense Initiative |
| 1982 | "The Computer" | Named "Machine of the Year" for kicking off Information Age |
| 1981 | Lech Walesa | Built the Gdansk Agreement as leader of Polish Solidarity |
| 1980 | Ronald Reagan | Defeated Jimmy Carter to become U.S. president |
| 1979 | Ruhollah Khomeini | Led the 1979 Iranian Revolution, becoming Supreme Leader |
| 1978 | Deng Xiaoping | Seized de facto control of China by overthrowing Hua Guofeng |
| 1977 | Anwar Sadat | Became first Egyptian president to visit Israel to build relations |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | Was elected U.S. president, defeating Gerald Ford |
| 1975 | "American women" | Acknowledging key players in the U.S. feminist movement |
| 1974 | Faisal | Played major role in global oil crisis as King of Saudi Arabia |
| 1973 | John Sirica | Ordered Richard Nixon to surrender Watergate recordings |
| 1972 | Henry Kissinger | Served as chief U.S. negotiator for peace in Vietnam War |
| 1972 | Richard Nixon | Became first U.S. president to visit China, was re-elected |
| 1971 | Richard Nixon | Created Economic Stabilization Plan, revived dialogue with communist China |
| 1970 | Willy Brandt | Renounced German claims on Poland, acknowledged Holocaust |
| 1969 | "The Middle Americans" | Representing conservative Americans from rural areas |
| 1968 | Apollo 8 astronauts | First humans in history to orbit the Moon |
| 1967 | Lyndon B. Johnson | Drew ire for Vietnam War failures, race riots. |
| 1966 | "The Inheritor" | Baby Boomers, who were aged 25 and under at the time |
| 1965 | William Westmoreland | Commanded U.S. forces in South Vietnam |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | Passed Civil Rights act, amplified U.S. role in Vietnam War |
| 1963 | Martin Luther King Jr. | Made major contributions as leader of American Civil rights movement |
| 1962 | Pope John XXIII | Mediated Cuban Missile Crisis between U.S. and U.S.S.R. |
| 1961 | John F. Kennedy | Inaugurated as U.S. president; led failed Cuban invasion |
| 1960 | "US Scientists" | 15 scientists recognized for achievements in the field |
| 1959 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Arranged Nikita Khrushchev visit to U.S., became first President to visit India |
| 1958 | Charles de Gaulle | Appointed PM of France in May, and was elected President in December |
| 1957 | Nikita Khrushchev | Led Russia to victory in the Space Race via Sputnik 1 launch |
| 1956 | "The Hungarian freedom fighter" | Hungarian revolutionaries who led an uprising against the Soviet-led government |
| 1955 | Harlow Curtice | Led General Motors to unprecedented sales as its President |
| 1954 | John Foster Dulles | Created the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization as Secretary of State |
| 1953 | Konrad Adenauer | Helped Germany rebuild economic relations with the West |
| 1952 | Elizabeth II | Became Queen of the U.K. and the Commonwealth |
| 1951 | Mohammad Mossadegh | Kicked out western oil companies as Prime Minister of Iran |
| 1950 | "The American fighting-man" | U.S. troops fighting in the Korean War |
| 1949 | Winston Churchill | Served as Leader of the Opposition |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman | Elected as U.S. president in an all-time upset |
| 1947 | George C. Marshall | Built the Marshall Plan as new Secretary of State |
| 1946 | James F. Byrnes | Reshaped U.S. foreign policy as Secretary of State |
| 1945 | Harry S. Truman | Approved atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima, Nagasaki |
| 1944 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Served as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe |
| 1943 | George C. Marshall | Led U.S. in World War II as Army Chief of Staff |
| 1942 | Joseph Stalin | Oversaw Battle of Stalingrad as Premier of Soviet Union |
| 1941 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Oversaw U.S. entry into World War II |
| 1940 | Winston Churchill | Oversaw Dunkirk evacuation, Battle of Britain as UK PM |
| 1939 | Joseph Stalin | Oversaw non-aggression deal with Nazi Germany |
| 1938 | Adolf Hitler | Led Germany/Austria unification, Sudetenland cession |
| 1937 | Soong Mei-ling* | Wife of Chiang Kai-shek; generated Chinese support in the U.S. |
| 1937 | Chiang Kai-shek | Premier of Republic of China during Second Sino-Japanese War |
| 1936 | Wallis Simpson | Relationship with King Edward VIII led to his abdication |
| 1935 | Haile Selassie | Emperor of Ethiopia during Second Italo-Abyssinian War |
| 1934 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Significant positive impact of his New Deal |
| 1933 | Hugh S. Johnson | Named director of National Recovery Administration |
| 1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Won a one-sided 1932 presidential election |
| 1931 | Pierre Laval | Appointed Prime Minister of France |
| 1930 | Mahatma Gandhi | Led the 240-mile Salt Satyagraha march to protest salt tax |
| 1929 | Owen D. Young | Authored Young Plan (settlement of German reparations post-WWI) |
| 1928 | Walter Chrysler | Oversaw Chrysler/Dodge merger |
| 1927 | Charles Lindbergh | First solo transatlantic flight |
*Referred to as Madame Chiang Kai-Shek in the magazine
🕰️📈 TIME Person of the Year Trends
- The presidential winner has been named Time Person of the Year in seven of the previous eight election years.
- "The Computer" (1982) and "The Endangered Earth" (1988) the only non-persons to be featured on the annual Time Person of the Year cover.
- Swift is the last person to appear on multiple Time Person of the Year covers; in addition to her 2023 nod, she was part of the 2017 cover honoring "The Silence Breakers".
- Barack Obama is the last person to earn multiple individual Time Person of the Year accolades, in 2008 and 2012.
Learn about the Time Person of the Year selection process here.
Time Person of the Year FAQs
The Time Person of the Year is expected to be revealed in early December.
President Donald Trump is a slight betting favorite for Time Person of the Year at +210, with billionaire Elon Musk next at +340
Current President Donald Trump was named Time Person of the Year in 2024.
Members of the Time newsroom select the candidate that best fits the criterion of “the person or persons who most affected the news and our lives, for good or ill, and embodied what was important about the year."
