The biggest betting event of Major League Baseball’s All-Star week isn’t Tuesday’s summer showcase. It’s actually Monday’s Home Run Derby at Truist Park in Atlanta, and sportsbooks are bracing for the Cal Raleigh effect.
Key Takeaways
- Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is the favorite to win the Home Run Derby and is BetMGM’s biggest liability
- Nationals power hitter James Wood has seen a ton of action as well
- Hometown hero Matt Olson is getting love in the first-round homers market
“The Home Run Derby is a great event bettors love to wager on, and we expect it to out-perform the MLB All-Star game in handle,” BetMGM trading manager Halvor Egeland told Covers. “Right now, the Big Dumper (Cal Raleigh) winning is the result BetMGM wants to avoid.”
The Seattle Mariners catcher, and favorite to win the Home Run Derby, is in the midst of a historic season. Raleigh set the American League record for most home runs (38) before the All-Star break. He missed Barry Bonds’ MLB mark by just one dinger.
Bettors are naturally flocking to the power hitter. Raleigh’s odds have dropped from +360 when the contest winner market opened to +275 at BetMGM. He’s received 30.3% of the handle, more than any other Home Run Derby participant.
Laying the Wood
With 17% of the bets placed, second-most behind Washington’s James Wood’s 18%, Raleigh’s is the sportsbook’s biggest liability.
At ESPN BET, Wood (+375) has barely edged Raleigh out with 20.5% of the handle to Raleigh’s 20.3%.
Wood, who’s hit 24 homers this year, is getting a leading 19.4% of the bets at the online sportsbook. Raleigh is second at 16.1% with Oneil Cruz (+325) third with 14.6% of the wagers. The Pittsburgh Pirate, who’s got 16 bombs this season, is getting 16.7% of the handle.
BetMGM reported that Wood (19.2% of the handle) and Cruz (14.5%) are the two biggest liabilities behind Raleigh. Minnesota’s Byron Buxton (+900) is the only other Home Run Derby participant to command a double-digit handle percentage at BetMGM.
Other derby markets
ESPN BET also reported that Atlanta’s Matt Olson has received the most money to hit the most home runs in the first round at 22.9%. Wood is second with 21.4% of the handle, but he’s seen more than double the tickets with 20% of the bets.
Oakland’s Brent Rooker is getting 11.4% of the bets and 20.9% of the handle in that market. Raleigh has seen 14.3% of the wagers and 11.8% of the money to lead the contest in first-round dingers.
ESPN BET said 41.9% of the bets and 80% of the handle are on the winner to come out of the National League, while the over on the total number of homers (238.5) has seen 83.6% of the wagers and 67.7% of the money.
