The Los Angeles Dodgers look to clinch another series win as they take on the Atlanta Braves on Saturday night.
Roki Sasaki takes the bump for the Dodgers in search of his first win of the season. The Braves will turn to Spencer Schwellenbach as they seek to end a two-game losing streak.
Our Dodgers vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 3 explain why the Dodgers should put up some strong numbers in the hit column.
Dodgers vs Braves prediction
My Dodgers vs Braves best bet: Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 hits allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Through his first few starts of the season, Spencer Schwellenbach was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He allowed four hits in his first two starts, issuing just one walk and fanning 14 hitters in 14 innings against the Padres and Marlins.
He’s regressed towards the mean. Each of his last four starts has seen him surrender 6+ hits, and over 23 2/3 IP, he’s allowed 28 hits while notching just 19 strikeouts. And the advanced metrics show there's likely more regression to come. Schwellenbach has posted a 2.87 ERA, but has an xERA of 3.68 on the season. His hard-hit rate is up from 2024, while his barrel rate is also up by 1.5% compared to last season.
Schwellenbach has outperformed his xBAA on five of his six pitches, none more than his fastball — where hitters are hitting just .270 when putting into play compared to a .360 xBA. And now he faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup punishing right-handed pitching over the past two weeks.
That could be bad news for the Atlanta Braves’ starter. All four of his home runs this season have been surrendered to left-handed hitters, against whom he’s also allowed a much higher BAA compared to RHB.
The Dodgers have numerous players posting strong hard-hit rates this season, and three sluggers — Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez — with xBA over .300 on the year. And if Tommy Edman can return from his ankle issue, they add another player who's been smashing the ball so far in 2025.
Atlanta manager Brian Snitker has a habit of leaving his starting pitchers in a bit too long, especially the ones he deems to be his aces. With his regression back to the mean seemingly underway, and facing an extremely potent offense, it’s highly likely the Dodgers reach the six-hit plateau against Schwellenbach as he gets into the lineup a third time.
Dodgers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 hits allowed
Over 8.5
Matt Olson Over 0.5 walks
Atlanta’s offense has woken up the past couple of weeks, and Saturday sees them facing a pitcher who has struggled with control. Roki Sasaki ranks in the bottom third of MLB in nearly every pitching metric, including a walk rate in the fourth percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 15th percentile
Sasaki has also given up at least one home run in three straight starts. Combine that with how the Dodgers are hitting the ball, and these two offenses are poised to put up some runs and should push this one Over.
A major problem for Sasaki has been walks, especially against left-handed hitters. Matt Olson has posted a strong walk rate this season and has earned a free pass in 12 of his last 16 games. He’ll get another base on balls tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Braves odds
Dodgers vs Braves live odds
Dodgers vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -115 | Atlanta -105
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+140) | Atlanta +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Braves trend
The Dodgers have cashed their first-five team total Over in 11 of their last 15 games for +6.3 units and a 34% ROI . Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves.
How to watch Dodgers vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Saturday, 5-3-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Roki Sasaki (0-1, 3.55 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (1-2, 2.87 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Braves latest injuries
Dodgers vs Braves weather
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