Things have gone from bad to worse for the Baltimore Orioles, who are dealing with yet another injury, but despite a brutal offensive showing, they’ve managed to pick up three wins in their last four.
That could all change on Saturday, however, and my Royals vs. Orioles predictions will explain why Kansas City should be poised to get back on track and win a 10th game in 12 tries.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Saturday, May 3.
Royals vs Orioles prediction
My Royals vs Orioles best bet: Royals moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
Kris Bubic has been nails in 2025, pitching to a clean 2.25 ERA behind one of the better defenses in baseball. Though his ground-ball rate continues to drop, which would run counter to the strength of the team behind him, which has excelled much more in the infield, he’s managed to maintain a nice 24.7% strikeout rate and decent 8% walk rate, which have helped him pitch around a few minor issues.
As a soft-tosser, Bubic would be hard-pressed to match the .190 expected batting average he produced in a limited sample last year, but the strikeouts will do nicely next to a relatively average .252 xBA.
The Baltimore Orioles aren't exactly hitting, anyway, and now with Ramon Urias joining Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westburg on the injured list, things look bleak. It sits just 20th in wRC+ in the last two weeks, striking out a ton and hitting just .221, and against lefties this season it’s hit .272 – almost 80 points lower than the reverse split.
Tomoyuki Sugano is also due to head the opposite way on the hill for the home team, sporting a .299 xBA and 5.69 xERA on a large complement of hard-hit ground balls. Baltimore ranks third-worst in outs above average in the infield, and is now down a starter in Westburg and his backup, Urias, which should further complicate matters for Sugano.
The righty is throwing a ton of strikes with a 4.4% walk rate and crazy-low 12.6% strikeout rate, praying for outs on contact. The Orioles’ defense is flat — and getting flatter with injuries — and the Kansas City Royals should feel good as they enter ranked five spots higher in OPS to ground-ballers than fly-ballers.
The Royals may be slumping even harder than the Orioles at the plate, but they have a discernible edge in the pitching matchup and have at least hit .266 in the last two weeks. They can win this one by singling Sugano to death and riding Bubic to the win.
Royals vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Royals moneyline
Kris Bubic 5+ strikeouts
Drew Waters 2+ total bases
Highlighting Bubic again here, I'll be brave enough to go after his strikeout prop despite relatively average marks in that department. The Orioles have not only struck out in roughly a quarter of their plate appearances over the last two weeks, but are sporting a dreadful 27% strikeout rate against lefties. I expect Bubic to cruise, too, and the longer he’s in the game, the better this prop looks.
Then, I’m going to keep on with one of my favorite AL stories in Drew Waters. He’s posted a .338 xBA against splitters from righties this year, but more than that, owns a .262 xBA against right-handers to rank fourth on the team. He has five hits in five games, hitting this number twice, and his speed has allowed him to rack up extra bases all year long.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Orioles odds
Royals vs Orioles live odds
Royals vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City -105 | Baltimore -120
- Run line: Kansas City -1.5 (+154) | Baltimore +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Royals vs Orioles trend
The Royals have cashed their team total Under in 24 of their last 33 games for +14.75 units and a 39% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Orioles.
How to watch Royals vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Saturday, 5-3-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Royals starting pitcher | Kris Bubic (2-2, 2.85 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Tomoyuki Sugano (3-1, 3.00 ERA) |
Royals vs Orioles latest injuries
Royals vs Orioles weather
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