Aaron Judge is the clear betting favorite to lead MLB in home runs throughout the 2025 regular season.
Shohei Ohtani is his closest competition (the only hitter with shorter odds than 10/1).
Let's look at where the MLB odds to crown 2025's home run king currently sit.
Odds to win 2025 MLB home run title
| Player |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
+400 | +350 | +350 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+650 | +600 | +600 |
 Kyle Schwarber |
+1000 | +1000 | +1200 |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
+1800 | +2000 | +1800 |
 Pete Alonso |
+1900 | +1800 | +1600 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+2200 | +2500 | +1400 |
| Juan Soto |
+2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
 Brent Rooker |
+3000 | +1600 | +2200 |
 Anthony Santander |
+3000 | +3000 | +3500 |
 Matt Olson |
+3000 | +2000 | +2200 |
 Kyle Tucker |
+3000 | +5000 | +3500 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
+3000 | +2800 | +3000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
+3500 | +4500 | +3500 |
| Bryce Harper |
+4000 | +6000 | +5000 |
 Jose Ramirez |
+4000 | +6000 | +5000 |
| Christian Walker |
+4000 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Tyler O'Neill |
+5500 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Teoscar Hernandez |
+5500 | +5500 | +5000 |
 Rafael Devers |
+5500 | +5000 | +6000 |
| Mark Vientos |
+5500 | +5500 | +6000 |
| Marcell Ozuna |
+5500 | +3300 | +5000 |
Odds as of 2-18-2025
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Latest MLB HR title analysis
2/18/2025: If any slugger can win consecutive home run titles for the first time since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011, it's Aaron Judge. Judge has led the majors in long balls in two of the last three seasons and is the early favorite to do it again in 2025. Since his 2017 rookie campaign, Judge's 311 home runs leads the majors by a considerable amount, with Kyle Schwarber next in line at 268 and Matt Olson behind him at 259. Judge has also appeared in fewer games than either.
Judge's injury risk is well documented and he feels like a bit of a ticking time bomb even though he's coming off a season where he didn't miss any time.
But, it's February, so everyone has a clean slate entering the season. I don't love Judge's odds (+400 being his best) as far as value is concerned because there are simply too many variables at play. If you are interested in Judge, I would wait and see if he gets out to a slow-ish start as he did in 2022 when he hit just one of his eventual 62 home runs in his first 13 games. If his odds balloon, strike.
Previous MLB HR title action
2/18/2025: This is where we will chronicle analysis of home run leader odds throughout the 2025 season.
Covers MLB betting tools
Recent single-season home run leaders
Here are each of the last 10 home run champions:
| Year | Player (No. of home runs) |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Aaron Judge (58) |
| 2023 | Matt Olson (54) |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge (62) |
| 2021 | Vladimir Guerrero &  Salvador Perez (48) |
| 2020 | Luke Voit (22) |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso (53) |
| 2018 | Khris Davis (48) |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton (59) |
| 2016 | Mark Trumbo (47) |
| 2015 | Chris Davis (47) |
Popular MLB futures markets
Understanding MLB HR title betting odds
Betting MLB home run title odds is about as simple as it gets. You are just betting on which player will end the regular season with the most home runs in the MLB. HR title betting futures are usually shown in American-style odds and usually look like this:
- Pete Alonso +800
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $800 if Alonso wins the MLB home run title. Now, most of these markets close when the season starts. But some sportsbooks may post updated odds at different points in the season, and if one player has a large lead in home runs you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of their odds:
- Aaron Judge -110
This means that you would need to bet $110 to win $100 on Judge winning the MLB home run title. If you want to see the odds in a different format check out our odds converter tool.
MLB HR Leader FAQ
New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge is the betting favorite to lead MLB in home runs.
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge led MLB in home runs with 58. It was the second time he's claimed the MLB home run crown.
After slugging 27 home runs in 2024, New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is the active leader with 429 career long balls. Mike Trout (378) and Paul Goldschmidt (362) are next in line.
The last player to lead the majors in home runs in back-to-back seasons is Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and 43 in 2011 as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.
